How many games will the Washington Commanders win in 2024?
It’s been an offseason full of change for Washington. Starting with general manager Adam Peters and head coach Dan Quinn, the Commanders have also turned over around 50% of the roster.
Change was needed after Washington finished 4-13 last season. The Commanders signed over 20 players in free agency and selected nine players in the 2024 NFL draft, led by quarterback Jayden Daniels.
The influx of new players, particularly Daniels, has Washington fans excited that the Commanders could have a Texans-like turnaround in 2024. The Houston Texans went 3-13-1 in 2022, used the second overall pick on quarterback C.J. Stroud, and won the AFC South with a 10-7 record.
NFL.com analytics expert Cynthia Frelund recently projected win totals for all 32 NFL teams in 2024. Frelund’s model predicts Washington at 7.2 wins.
Commanders fans should be excited about a number of shrewd moves and draft picks, but I particularly loved what the new regime did at the linebacker position. Free-agent additions Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu both ranked in the top 15 in defensive stops last season. I expect these two veteran studs to help this rebuilding team get through some early schedule challenges. Washington faces its toughest four-game stretch of the season in Weeks 3 through 6: at Cincinnati (MNF), at Arizona, vs. Cleveland, at Baltimore.
Frelund explained her model and how she arrived at each team’s projected win total:
Using the projected 53-man rosters as of May 14, I ran 150,000 simulations for all 272 regular-season games. (A quick note: Barring injuries, which are typically the biggest source of uncertainty, I have made roster projections using the best information available. It’s May, for goodness’ sake, so you should check back for the updated versions of these win-total projections just before the season starts.) These simulations yielded a projected win total for each team, which, thanks to the multitude of factors involved, is not always a round number.
Seven wins would be a big improvement for Washington, particularly in the first year of a new regime. A fast start would undoubtedly have fans wanting and expecting similar results as the Texans had in 2023.
