WASHINGTON — As China waged extensive military exercises off of Taiwan last week, a group of American defense experts in Washington was focused on their own simulation of an eventual — but for now entirely hypothetical — U.S.-China war over the island.
The unofficial what-if game is being conducted on the fifth floor of an office building not far from the White House, and it posits a U.S. military response to a Chinese invasion in 2026. Even though the participants bring an American perspective, they are finding that a U.S.-Taiwan victory, if there is one, could come at a huge cost.
“The results are showing that under most — though not all — scenarios, Taiwan can repel an invasion,” said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, where the war games are being held. “However, the cost will be very high to the Taiwanese infrastructure and economy and to U.S. forces in the Pacific.”
