The 49ers have a particular way of doing business, and that way of doing business makes contract negotiations like the ones they’re having with wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk a little uncomfortable. While they’re track record with these negotiations is good, there’s always a chance the two sides never come together to find the “sweet spot” on a long-term contract. So, what happens if they don’t get a deal done?
There are a handful of directions it can go if things get that ugly.
Scenario 1
Aiyuk could just play out the final year of his rookie contract at a fully guaranteed $14,124,000 this season and hit unrestricted free agency next year. The 49ers in this scenario would also be able to exclusively negotiate an extension with him until the legal negotiating window opens in mid-March. It stands to reason the franchise tag would be on the table here for the 49ers as well. Players generally don’t like playing on the fifth-year option because they’d rather have long-term stability before the final year of their rookie deals, but there’s no rule that says they can’t play it out. The 49ers are banking heavily on Aiyuk preferring long-term security going into 2024.
Scenario 2
There’s also a chance Aiyuk chooses to not play on the fifth-year option and just sits out a full season. This wouldn’t be wise since he’d not accrue a season so next year he’d be back in the same spot and he would have not been paid at all for the 2024 campaign. He could sit out until there are six games left and then return so he accrues a full season, but both of the solutions in this case are exceedingly unlikely.
Scenario 3
San Francisco could always trade Aiyuk during training camp or the preseason. If they’re of the mind they’ll never come to an agreement with Aiyuk, then the 49ers might look to move him. This would be a nightmare scenario though since they probably could have had a mid-to-late first-round pick for him in this year’s draft, but instead held onto him to negotiate a long-term deal.
The third scenario is an important one because it highlights two key components of the negotiations.
One of the main themes to everything the 49ers do right now is that they’re trying to win a Super Bowl. If Aiyuk wants to sit out an entire season, that hurts the 49ers, but it hurts him even more. Teams tend to have more leverage in these situations. San Francisco had to be of the mind during this year’s draft they’d be paying an All-Pro receiver in the range of $30 million per year by the time all the other WR contracts shook out. It’s nigh impossible to imagine the inflated WR deals came as a shock to an intelligent front office like San Francisco’s to the point that they’d suddenly be scrambling to move off of him for whatever they can get.
And that’s where the second piece of that third scenario comes into play. If the 49ers are looking to trade Aiyuk, they’d want something back that could help them this year. A 2025 draft pick can’t help them win a Super Bowl in 2024. An Aiyuk deal at this juncture would have to be a player-for-player swap where San Francisco is either getting back an excellent WR or an All-Pro type of player at another position. That kind of deal doesn’t seem likely to surface.
Ultimately, we’re going to lean on history and say something gets done between Aiyuk and the 49ers at or shortly after the start of training camp. If it doesn’t, things could get messy quick.
