Ten days ago Boris Johnson said he was mulling a third term until the mid-2030s.
Now Tory MPs are questioning if he’ll survive the summer after the brutal resignations of his Chancellor and Health Secretary.
Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid published their scathing letters nine minutes apart, just as the PM was due to summon a meeting of his loyalists.
It comes after the Prime Minister was accused of lying about whether he knew of allegations against the Tory MP Chris Pincher, who has denied a series of allegations dating back over the last decade.
For many Conservatives, how No10 dealt with the claims has been the final straw after months of questions about the PM’s integrity.
But will this be enough to oust Boris Johnson once and for all?
There are no guarantees and, let’s be honest, it’s just too early for us to know.
Here is a snap analysis of some of the biggest hurdles along the road immediately in front of him.
What will Boris Johnson’s first steps be?
The Prime Minister’s aides will have rushed to ensure the loyalty of other top ministers to ensure there isn’t a cascade of resignations.
At the time of writing (and this could change fast) only three Cabinet ministers hadn’t declared if they were going to stay.
They included COP President Alok Sharma, Environment Secretary George Eustice, and Welsh Secretary Simon Hart.
Further Cabinet resignations looked unlikelier as hours ticked by. And the PM would be heartened by Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid insisting they did NOT co-ordinate their resignations, despite them coming nine minutes apart.
His first step was to appoint Nadhim Zahawi as Chancellor, with Chief of Staff Steve Barclay moved to the latter. Michelle Donelan has been promoted to Education Secretary in place of former boss Zahawi.
But junior roles in the government now also need filling after a smattering of further resignations of trade envoys and parliamentary under-secretaries, as well as Solicitor General Alex Chalk.
What happens next for Boris Johnson?
Even if there are no more big-name resignations the Prime Minister faces a torrid 24 hours.
Tomorrow he will face PMQs followed by a 3pm hearing of the Liaison Committee, where the Chris Pincher affair will come up.
The supergroup of MPs includes some of his harshest Tory critics and will put sharp questions about his integrity.
Even without more Cabinet resignations the drip-drip of back bench criticism will still be extremely damaging.
Julian Knight, Anthony Browne and Andrew Murrison all declared against the Prime Minister after staying ambiguous in the no confidence vote.
Even some of those who had been loyal, like Sally-Ann Hart and Jonathan Gullis, threw in the towel.
Hours earlier, Top Tory Nick Gibb demanded the Cabinet topple the PM to “get rid of the rot” because ministers can no longer be trusted by the public.
The PM will also have to reshuffle a string of Parliamentary Private Secretary jobs after those quitting included ultra-loyalist Jonathan Gullis, Saqib Bhatti, Virginia Crosbie and Nicola Richards, alongside Tory vice chair Bim Afolami.
While none are household names, they are further notches of once-loyal MPs no longer willing to serve.
Bit by bit they are reducing the pool of MPs willing to join the government or support him, after 41% already voted no confidence in him.
And those numbers will be important after a big election next Wednesday…
Will he be ousted as Tory leader or resign?
Boris Johnson has never signalled he’ll resign before and all signs are he wants to stay. That means he’d have to be toppled.
They’ve had a no confidence vote which the PM won, so no further vote can be held until June 2023.
But this can be changed if the 1922 Committee’s 18-member executive changes rules to hold another vote sooner.
And by sheer chance, elections for a new executive are being held on Wednesday next week - so this is highly likely.
Boris Johnson’s loyalists had been due to fight his critics for seats but tonight’s events could clear the way for more of his attackers.
One, Andrew Bridgen, said: “We will be changing the rules before the summer recess to remove the Prime Minister, have a second confidence vote.”
Another serial critic, Roger Gale, said “the game is up” adding “there is the door - walk through it and don’t come back”.
Meanwhile Sajid Javid and Rishi Sunak's letters read like pitches to the Tory membership and more leadership contenders could come out of the woodwork.
Will there be a snap general election?
Keir Starmer backed a snap general election to be called in the next few weeks.
Labour ’s leader said: “We need a fresh start for Britain, we need a change of government.
“This government is collapsing, the Tory party is corrupted, and changing one man at the top of the Tory party won’t fix the problems.”
But a snap election is not triggered automatically if the Tory leader is ousted - and Boris Johnson seems very unlikely to call one, with Labour ahead in the polls and the Tories in turmoil.
Technically he can wait until January 2025 to hold an election though most expect the date to be sooner than that.
The alternative, of course, is that a new Tory leader takes over and wants an election to gain a fresh mandate.
Will Boris Johnson survive until 2024?
Speaking to the Mirror before tonight, even Tory MPs who supported the Prime Minister doubted he would make it to 2024.
The next danger moments include changing of the 1922 Committee rules, the October conference, and a report by the Privileges Committee in October or November into whether he lied.
Then, of course, there’s the mounting cost-of-living crisis and upcoming May 2023 elections adding pressure from the shires.
One senior Conservative told the Mirror the real danger moment was this coming winter - before the last chance to oust him next summer.
They explained: "Insurrections always start from the bottom up. We have district council elections next year and that is our real core vote.
“This year’s elections were mostly metropolitan areas but next year it will be the Tory shires.
“If we get to the autumn, after party conference, and councillors think they are going to lose their seats they will start complaining.
“Who do MPs listen to most? It’s not the whips, it’s their council leaders and association chairmen.
“That October to February period will be key."
