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USA Today Sports Media Group
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Phil Harrison

What does the ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor say about Ohio State’s chances of beating Penn State, Michigan, rest of schedule

Each week we like to check in on how the ESPN FPI (Football Power Index) changes the percentage chances of the Ohio State football team winning the each remaining regular season game of the 2023 season, and it’s that time of the week again.

So far, believe it or not, ESPN’s crazy model that predicts future performance of a team based on current metrics in combination with its opponents, has been very kind to the Buckeyes. It has predicted them to win each game on the schedule. We don’t ask how the sausage was made, we just consume it:  It’s been pretty savory so far.

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And in case you haven’t been paying attention, Ohio State has a massive matchup this weekend with Penn State. Both are undefeated. Both are in the top 10, and the winner will have a significant leg up in the race for the Big Ten title and perhaps a berth in the College Football Playoff. The loser isn’t out of it, but it will have to grab the pom-poms and start researching conspiracy theories the rest of the way.

Here is what the ESPN FPI matchup predictor says about each remaining game on the schedule and OSU’s chances of winning, including games against those Nittany Lions, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Michigan State and, of course, Michigan. We also take a look at how things might have changed since last week when we went through the same exercise.

Oct. 21 vs. Penn State

(Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 63.5% (down from 65.6% from last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 23-14

Projected running record: 7-0

Oct. 28 at Wisconsin

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Camp Randall Stadium (Madison, Wisconsin)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 88.3% (up from 83.2% from last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 62-18-5

Projected running record: 8-0

Nov. 4 at Rutgers

USA TODAY SMG

SHI Stadium (Piscataway, New Jersey)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 92.2% (up from 91.0% from last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 9-0

Projected running record: 9-0

Nov. 11 vs. Michigan State

USA TODAY SMG

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 96.9% (up from 96.7% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 36-15

Projected running record: 10-0

Nov. 18 vs. Minnesota

Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 97.2% (up from 96.9% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 46-7

Projected running record: 11-0

Nov. 25 at Michigan

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 53.2% (down from 54.4% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU trails 51-60-6

Projected running record: 12-0

NEXT … The summary of the ESPN Matchup Predictor Ohio State trends

Trending Summary

USA Today Sports

How each remaining Ohio State game is trending according to the ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor

Opponent Chances of Winning Chances Last Week Trend
vs. Penn State 63.5% 65.6%
at Wisconsin 88.3% 83.2%
at Rutgers 92.2% 91.0%
vs. Michigan State 96.9% 96.7%
vs. Minnesota 97.2% 96.9%
at Michigan 53.2% 54.4%

Contact/Follow us @BuckeyesWire on X (formerly Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Ohio State news, notes, and opinion. Follow Phil Harrison on X.

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