While we've seen the first hot winds of government numbers so far this week, the big storm surge of silliness is expected Friday through next Wednesday.
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In the Corn market, from a fundamental point of view - and I mean real supply and demand - we already know the commercial side has built in the most bearish case scenario.
Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis. In the Soybean market, merchandisers are showing us they expect a good deal of the 2025 crop to be sold at harvest.
Morning Summary: There are times when sitting in my basement office, staring at a flashing quote screen, I understand what Isaac Cline must’ve thought as he looked out at the GULF OF MEXICO roughly 125 years ago. Cline was the chief meteorologist at the Galveston, Texas office of the U.S. Weather Bureau, and according to the book “Isaac’s Storm”[i], he could sense what was coming. The 1900 Galveston hurricane would become “the deadliest natural disaster in the history of the United States”. No, what happens over the coming days isn’t life and death, but markets in a number of sectors could certainly be swept out to the figurative sea. I’m talking about the storm of government numbers and announcements headed our way. We’ve already seen the August Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index giving us mixed reads on inflation Wednesday and Thursday[ii]. Today, Friday, the ag sector will get its monthly dose of imaginary USDA supply and demand estimates, almost guaranteed to trigger Watson one way or the other. But these are all just initial winds, with the main storm surge coming at us in the form of next week’s US Federal Open Market Committee meeting and expected announcement of a 25-basis point rate cut.
