Of all the dire numbers that Tory MPs have been confronted with this week, one has stuck in their mind: 17. It’s the size of Labour’s poll lead, according to the latest YouGov poll. It’s sparked panic in the cabinet and among MPs. One minister with a majority of more than 10,000 frets that they would lose their seat with these numbers. What worries them even more is that this poll was taken before the full economic fallout from the mini-budget became clear. What will the numbers be once homeowners have realised what rising interest rates mean for their mortgage payments?
The difference between this situation and the scandals that dominated Boris Johnson’s government is that it will have immediate and painful consequences for swaths of voters. “It goes well beyond Westminster,” says a MP from the 2015 intake. Tory MPs report calls from constituents they rarely hear from who are worried they will not be able to pay their mortgage. “They’ve broken the economy and the party,” argues a former minister who backed Rishi Sunak.
