The home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, is planning sweeping changes to the asylum system with the warning that “dark forces are stirring up anger” over migration.
It comes as Nigel Farage’s Reform UK attracts support because of the failure of successive governments to stop unauthorised small boat crossings in the Channel and unease about the use of hotels to house asylum seekers.
Details will be released by Mahmood on Monday afternoon in a 33-page policy paper but below we look at the changes proposed so far
People with refugee status could be forced to return to their home country if it becomes safe
Mahmood has indicated support for measures that would end the permanent status of refugees. Under her plans, they would need to reapply to remain in Britain every two-and-a-half years.
Tony Vaughan, the Labour MP for Folkestone and an immigration lawyer, has spoken out against the proposals, saying plans to review refugee status every 30 months are “completely the wrong decision on principle”.
It is understood that those granted asylum could be returned to their home countries when they are considered safe – a policy modelled on Denmark’s controversial system. Some research has suggested that deterrence policies have little impact on asylum seekers’ choice of destination, but a 2017 study said Denmark’s “negative nation branding” had proved effective.
People granted asylum status will have to wait much longer to become UK citizens
Refugees are given protection for five years, after which they can apply for indefinite leave to remain, which offers a pathway to British citizenship.
But under the proposed changes, people who arrive illegally would have to wait 20 years before they can apply for permanent settlement – a measure that is expected to apply only to new arrivals.
Under such changes, the five-year protection period would be cut to 30 months, with regular reviews on whether protection was still needed and refugee status revoked if a country was believed to be safe.
‘Right to family life’ claims to be curbed
The government will announce plans to introduce legislation that restricts how courts apply the European convention on human rights (ECHR) regarding family life.
Article 8 of the ECHR, which guarantees the right to family and private life, will be reinterpreted “in favour of the British people’s expectations” and the government says it will legislate to make clear a family connection means immediate family, such as a parent or child.
The Guardian understands Mahmood’s plan has led to significant unease among senior Labour aides and ministers, with at least one on resignation watch.
Madeleine Sumption, the director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, says it remains unclear how the proposed measures would affect families, as much will depend on how it is implemented and how judges respond to the changes.
“The government wants to rein in the human rights laws that enable people to prevent removal if they have family in the UK, but it is not clear how much they will be able to do this within the ECHR framework,” she says.
“We’re yet to see the full details of the family reunion policy. The government hopes that it will deter people with families from coming at all, and this will presumably happen in some cases. In others, it is likely that significant restrictions on this route would lead to some families living apart.”
Ukrainians welcomed to the UK would also have to return
Asked whether Ukrainians would be affected by the new system, Mahmood has said nationals from the wartorn country are already here on a “temporary arrangement” and has indicated they will also face the need to return.
The home secretary adds that Ukrainians are in the UK on a bespoke system and “most” of them will want to return once the conflict with Russia has ended.
Removal of automatic benefits and checks on ‘high-value items’ owned by asylum seekers
Mahmood says she will amend laws that guarantee housing and financial support to asylum seekers who would otherwise face destitution. The statutory legal duty to provide asylum-seeker support, including housing and weekly allowances, will be revoked.
The government has also announced it will seek to remove asylum support for those who have a right to work and who can support themselves. Asylum seekers who break the law, fail to comply with removal directions or work illegally could also have support removed.
Benefits will be prioritised for those making a contribution to the economy and communities, says the government. It adds that refugees will continue to have access to public funds, but the government will consult on measures that could mean people have to meet additional requirements to receive and retain benefits.
Officials have denied claims that they will seize jewellery belonging to claimants, but say “where people have a large number of high-value items, we would expect them to contribute to the cost of their accommodation”.
Use of AI to establish age
AI will be used to assess the ages of people who arrive illegally, with the government saying an inaccurate system means those claiming to be underage or being mistakenly classed as adults is putting children at risk.
Rights group have expressed concerns that it could ingrain bias and incorrectly classify children as adults and endanger them.
Sile Reynolds, the head of asylum advocacy at Freedom from Torture, says: “The use of such unreliable technology in determining the age or need for protection of vulnerable and traumatised people is dangerous and irresponsible.
“Corrupted by the biases and bigotries buried in the source data used to train AI models, these tools then make mistakes at an unacceptable rate.”
New legal routes to the UK to be introduced
Mahmood says the government will introduce new safe and legal routes to the UK as a way to reduce the number of dangerous journeys in small boats across the Channel.
People will be able to sponsor individual refugees in a similar model to the “Homes for Ukraine” scheme, under which Britons hosted Ukrainians fleeing war.
According to the government, the routes will be capped and are designed to give communities a greater say about the presence of refugees and better support for asylum seekers, including help to learn English to a high standard.
Those who come via legal routes will have a faster and easier path to becoming permanent citizens, says Mahmood.
Skilled refugees will be able to come to the UK for work, building on the Displaced Talent Mobility pilot, which was launched in 2021 under the previous government.
Overhaul of Modern Slavery Act and push for changes to European human rights laws
Article 3 of the European convention on human rights, which protects people from torture and inhuman or degrading treatment, will be reinterpreted to “support the deportation of dangerous criminals”, Home Office officials have said.
Ministers have backtracked on plans to change the UK interpretation of article 3, which means lengthy negotiations with ECHR signatories.
Jonathan Sumption, a former UK supreme court judge, says limiting the interpretation of human rights laws risks bringing the government into conflict with the European court of human rights in Strasbourg
Legislation will be brought forward to overhaul the Modern Slavery Act, which was introduced when Theresa May was home secretary. The act will be changed to prevent it being used “as a tactic to undermine British border security”, the government says.
Cases the government deems to have little chance of success and those of criminals will be fast-tracked.
The government has promised to overhaul an appeals process it says means asylum seekers could “bounce around the appeals system for years”. Those seeking asylum will be restricted to arguing all grounds against their removal in a single appeal.
Visa bans for three African countries over ‘low cooperation’ on deportations
The Home Office says visa applications from Angola, Namibia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo will not be granted unless their governments increase cooperation with the UK on the deportation process for their nationals.
In a statement, it says visa bans will be imposed “unless they accept the return of their criminals and illegal immigrants”, saying the threat of penalties is because of “unacceptably low cooperation and obstructive returns processes”.
