Three of the four divisional playoff matchups that will take place this weekend are rematches of games that took place during the regular season. Both the San Francisco 49ers-Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams-Tampa Bay Buccaneers games took place in Week 3, while the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs played in Week 5. Only the Tennessee Titans game against the Cincinnati Bengals will be a fresh matchup.
The NFL season is a marathon, not a sprint, so these teams aren’t exactly the same as they were when they previously met. But for the betting world, there are still a few things that can be gathered, such as how much these teams are capable of scoring on each other, which players matchup up well, or not, and how close these games might play out.
Below is a look at each matchup.
All odds via Tipico Sportsbook.
49ers at Packers
Divisional Round: Green Bay (-5.5)
Week 3: Packers 30, 49ers 28 (Niners -3.5)
When these teams met in Week 3, the Packers were well on their way to becoming the team they are, edging out the Niners for their second win of a seven-game winning streak. However, for the Niners, the loss sent them into a tailspin of four straight losses – five in six games – and a hole they didn’t fully dig out of until the final week of the season.
The first thing to gather from the previous meeting between these teams is that the 5.5-point spread for Saturday’s game might be a little much. The underdog Niners are finally rounding into the team people thought they were in that first matchup, when they were favored by a consensus 3.5 points over the Packers. Though they lost, it was only by a two-point margin.
It was a game where Aaron Rodgers absolutely went off in the first half, helping Green Bay take a 17-0 lead. San Francisco outscored the Packers 28-13 the rest of the way. In colder and potentially wetter weather Saturday, the first half should play out differently and make for a tighter game throughout.
Because of the weather and change in game flow, this game should feature the running backs a little more. The Niners rushed just 21 times the first meeting, tied for their second-fewest attempts this season. But this was before they began using Deebo Samuel out of the backfield on a consistent basis, and leading rusher Elijah Mitchell also missed the game with an injury. So they’ll have a few more options and potentially more success when it comes to attacking a Packers defense that allowed 4.7 yards per carry this season.
The Packers will also have another option in the running game. They ran the ball 25 times, which is about their season average, but this was before they fully unleashed AJ Dillon. Aaron Jones will get touches, but Dillon’s presence will make it hard for him to match the 82 yards he gained on 19 carries the first time. Green Bay finished with exactly 100 yards on 4.0 yards per carry, which is about the minimum expectation for this game between the two so long as Rodgers opens the field up in the passing game.
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Rodgers shouldn’t have a problem doing just that against a Niners secondary that has shown little resistance this season. The only thing that could potentially slow him down is the weather, or if the Niners’ pass rush can get to him. If that doesn’t happen, he and Davante Adams will have another field day like when they connected on 12 of 18 targets for 132 yards and a touchdown in Week 3.
On the other side, Jimmy Garoppolo should throw the ball fewer than the 40 attempts he had the first time but Samuel and George Kittle should again be his top targets. Kittle led the way with seven catches for 92 yards, but Samuel (five catches for 52 yards) saw a team-high 10 targets and is only being utilized more these days.
Rams at Bucs
Divisional Round: Bucs (-2.5)
Week 3: Rams 34, Buccaneers 24 (Bucs -1)
The first thing that jumps off the page when looking at the box score for the first meeting between these teams is that Tom Brady threw the ball 55 times (season high) and the Bucs ran it just 13 times (season low). Nine of those carries came in the first half, as the team all but abandoned the running game as the margin grew larger in the second half. Brady actually led the team with his 14 yards on the ground.
That can’t happen again if the Bucs expect to win, but first they obviously need their defense to improve. That won’t be hard. Matthew Stafford threw for 343 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions in what might stand as his best game of the season. The Rams led by as much as 17 and won the game 34-24. Not only was that the most yards passed for against the Bucs this year, Tampa Bay hasn’t given up a 300-yard passing game since.
Stafford can’t be expected to replicate that performance, especially as he’s turned the ball over a lot more recently. And the Bucs’ pass defense, while not great, is top-10 in sacks and interceptions. Still, when he does connect in the passing game, Cooper Kupp should continue to be his main target. Kupp had a game-high nine catches on 12 targets for 96 yards and two touchdowns in Week 3.
The Rams should also be able to at least match what they did on the ground in their first meeting when they totaled 76 yards on just 3.2 yards per carry, with Sony Michel doing the majority of the work. The yardage won’t be any easier to come by against a good Bucs run defense, but the return of Cam Akers gives them more versatility in the backfield.
The Bucs’ run game, as mentioned, was nonexistent. That won’t be the case this time around, but the only question is who gets the carries with the statuses of Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones up in the air. The Rams also play the run well, but Tampa has to do it in order to make things easier on Brady, who was sacked three times the first meeting.
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Brady and Mike Evans connected eight times for 106 yards, but with Chris Godwin out this time, the Rams should be able to send more help to Evans if necessary. He may have a tougher time, but Rob Gronkowski, who caught four of his eight targets for 55 yards, could help alleviate some of that. Giovani Bernard, who caught nine passes including Brady’s only touchdown pass, returned from injury for their Wild Card win over the Eagles and could see a similar workload.
Bills at Chiefs
Divisional Round: Chiefs (-1.5)
Week 5: Bills 38, Chiefs 20 (Kansas City -3)
The Bills absolutely handled the Chiefs when these teams met in Week 5, but this won’t be the same Chiefs team they face on Sunday. The loss was Kansas City’s third in four games and the team had yet to figure out what ailed its offense, while the defense had given up at least 29 points in every game through a 2-3 start to the season.
The Chiefs have since pulled it together but there are still a few things to take from their side, beginning with how they were able to run the ball when they did. The Chiefs totaled 120 yards on 5.2 yards per rush attempt. And though Patrick Mahomes accounted for 61 yards by himself, Darrell Williams averaged 5.4 yards on five carries. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a tougher time.
Their running back situation remains up in the air due to injury ahead of Sunday’s game, so it’s hard to pinpoint one of them, but if they remain committed to a similar game plan, Mahomes will better take advantage through the air than he was capable at that point in the season. Mahomes had 272 yards and two touchdowns passing in Week 5, but he also had two interceptions and averaged just 5.0 yards per attempt.
Buffalo, similarly, got more of their rushing yards from quarterback Josh Allen (59) than they did from any single running back. But that’s more Allen’s M.O. than Mahomes, and shouldn’t be a surprise if he repeats. Where Allen took things over the top is with his 315-yard, three-touchdown passing performance. After what he did to the New England Patriots in the Wild Card round, that’s absolutely something he can repeat, too.
Speaking of last week’s game, his favorite target against the Pats was tight end Dawson Knox who caught two touchdowns. Knox was also good against the Chiefs, catching three passes for 117 yards and a touchdown. Look for Allen to continue targeting him while spreading the ball around to prevent the Chiefs from keying on any one target. Stefon Diggs is Allen’s best receiver, but he had just three receptions for 60 yards against the Pats. Not dissimilar from his two receptions for 69 yards against the Chiefs. At their best, the Bills haven’t needed to pass very much, which means Diggs isn’t targeted a whole lot.
The Chiefs did have to pass a lot that first game, airing it out 55 times, and their usual playmakers were on the other end of a lot of those looks. However, their yards were kept in check. Travis Kelce saw 10 targets for six receptions, 57 yards and a touchdown. Tyreek Hill saw a game-high 13 targets for seven catches and 63 yards. With the attention on them, Mecole Hardman was able to catch a game-high nine passes for 76 yards. Look for him to again be a big option in the passing game.
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