It couldn't have gone any better for Bristol Rovers. Following their heart-stopping comeback victory at Rochdale, 48 hours later they witnessed Mansfield Town draw with Salford City and Port Vale lose a third straight game, at home to Newport County.
Had either side won, they would have leapfrogged Rovers heading into the final Saturday of the season, and further complicating the situation for the Gas as they prepare to host Scunthorpe United.
As fate would have it, Rovers' path to automatic promotion is a little clearer. They definitely have a play-off place but it could get better than that if they can do the business against the already-relegated Iron and Northampton stumble at Barrow.
With the top 10 of League Two been an interchanging soap opera over the last four months, this conclusion to the campaign was somewhat inevitable.
Five teams are in with a shot of automatic promotion, five also in the mix for the final two play-off places, plus the title still to be decided between Exeter City and Forest Green. We've tried our best to summarise and explain the permutations and requirements for each team below.
1. Exeter City - 84pts | GD +25
Play: Port Vale (H)
Can finish: 1-2
The Grecians are already promoted and will be champions if they beat Port Vale at St James’ Park. They can still claim the title with a draw, provided Forest Green don’t win at Mansfield Town. A defeat will also be enough if Forest Green lose.
2. Forest Green Rovers - 83pts | GD +31
Play: Mansfield Town (A)
Can finish: 1-2
Like Exeter, FGR have guaranteed League One football for next season. They will claim the title if they win and Exeter fail to overcome Port Vale. A draw could be enough, should the Grecians lose, given their superior goal difference. A loss at Field Mill means they will finish second, irrespective of what Exeter do.
3. Northampton Town - 77pts | GD +20
Play: Barrow (A)
Can finish: 3-7
Northampton, who have booked a play-off spot, will claim the final automatic promotion spot if they win at Barrow and Bristol Rovers don’t. If the Gas do win, then the Cobblers must also match that three points and hope Joey Barton’s side don’t outscore them by five goals.
A draw will be enough if Rovers are held by Scunthorpe, Mansfield fail to beat Forest Green and Port Vale can’t get a win against Exeter. Should they lose to Barrow, provided it’s not by a margin of five or more goals, they then require Rovers and Mansfield to lose and Port Vale and Swindon not to win.
Defeat and wins for all the teams below them would see the Cobblers fall to seventh.
4. Bristol Rovers - 77pts | GD +15
Play: Scunthorpe United (H)
Can finish: 3-7
Rovers can claim third place with a win and if Northampton then lose or draw. If both the Gas and the Cobblers are victorious, Barton’s side must outscore Northampton’s margin of victory by five goals. Should both finish level on points and goal difference, Rovers would advance having scored more over the course of the season.
A draw at the Mem is only enough to claim third if Northampton lose and Mansfield and Port Vale don’t win. A loss would mean preparing for the play-offs, unless a slightly freakish turn of events where Northampton are beaten by a margin of five or more than Rovers’ deficit, Mansfield lose and Port Vale and Swindon fail to claim three points.
5. Mansfield Town - 76pts | GD +20
Play: Forest Green Rovers (H)
Can finish: 3-8
Mansfield would claim third place if they win and both Northampton and Rovers don’t. Should they draw, they then require those two sides to lose, Port Vale fail to overcome Exeter City and Swindon not to win at Walsall.
Defeat for Mansfield could see them fall out of the play-offs if Port Vale, Swindon and Sutton United win, with the latter needing to make up a six-goal deficit on the Stags.
6. Port Vale - 75pts | GD +20
Play: Exeter City (A)
Can finish: 3-9
Vale’s slip up against Newport County has taken it out of their hands but to have any chance of taking that third spot they simply have to first win at promoted Exeter City. They then require Northampton and Bristol Rovers to lose or draw - beating both sides on goal difference - and Mansfield not to win.
Port Vale can’t make automatic promotion with a draw but that result will guarantee play-offs if Sutton don’t win, or if they do beat Harrogate and it’s not by a margin of six goals.
Should Vale lose in Devon, they risk being overtaken by Swindon and Sutton, should they both win, and even Tranmere Rovers, albeit requiring an eight-goal swing to fall all the way down to ninth.
7. Swindon Town - 74pts | GD +20
Play: Walsall (A)
Can finish: 3-9
Swindon can only take third place if they win, Northampton and Rovers lose - pushing them above the Cobblers on goal difference - and Mansfield and Port Vale fail to claim three points.
A draw could be enough for play-offs, if Sutton and Tranmere don’t win. The same is also true should they lose at the Bescot Stadium.
8. Sutton United - 73pts | GD +14
Play: Harrogate Town (A)
Can finish: 5-9
Their inferior goal difference is a problem as they can seal a play-off place with a win but that then may not be enough if Mansfield and Port Vale draw or win and then Swindon are able to beat Walsall. Victory and one of those situations not occurring, gets Sutton into the top seven.
A draw could nudge them ahead of Swindon but only if the Robins are beaten by seven goals at Walsall.
9. Tranmere Rovers - 72pts | GD +12
Play: Leyton Orient (A)
Can finish: 6-9
Only victory for Tranmere will do, and they then need Swindon to lose and Sutton not to win. Theoretically they could finish as high as sixth if Port Vale lose and they can make up the eight-goal deficit plus Swindon and Sutton failing.
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