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What are the US midterms? Why do they matter? And who might win the elections?

Like it or not, the United States is approaching the pointy end of another election cycle.

On November 8 millions of Americans will cast a vote that will shape the second half of Joe Biden's presidency.

One thing the US people won't be voting on is a new president. Let's have a look at how it will work.

So, what are the US midterm elections? 

The American election cycle seemingly never ends. 

That's because the public votes in midterm elections every two years. They get their name because they fall about halfway through the president's four-year term.  

During the midterm elections, all 435 seats in the US lower house — the House of Representatives — are up for grabs.

In the US Senate, 35 of the 100 seats will be voted on. That's because Senate terms operate on a six-year cycle, which means about a third come up every election, but never all at once. 

Voters will also choose 36 state governorships and three US territory governorships (which as similar state premiers in Australia), as well as a bunch of other minor postings and ballot measures, where voters give their say on a specific topic.

So there are plenty of decisions to be made. 

But the big race is for control of the House and the Senate, which Mr Biden's Democratic Party holds by a slim majority.

Why are the US midterm elections important?

The midterm elections will determine who controls Congress, which is in charge of creating, debating and passing federal laws that affect the lives of hundreds of millions of Americans.

As mentioned above, it will also set the outlook for Mr Biden's presidential agenda over the next two years. 

Holding power over chambers of Congress means a party can pass legislation, and set up committees like the one investigating the January 6 attack on the Capitol last year. 

However the Republicans — former President Donald Trump's party — are hoping to win Congressional power, and make the remaining two years of Mr Biden's first term as president much more difficult.

Nightmare in Nevada?

Where do things stand heading into the midterm elections?

It's a very tight race.

The Democrats currently have a slim control over both houses.

In the House of Representatives the Democrats hold a majority of 220 seats over the 212 held by the Republican Party.

For the Senate, it's as close as can be, explains Associated Press Chief Congressional Reporter Lisa Mascaro.

"[Democrats] have the most slim majority in the Senate," she says.

"The Senate is equally divided right now, 50-50 between the Republicans and the Democrats.

"The reason Democrats have the majority is because the president's vice president, Kamala Harris, has an ability to cast a tie-breaking vote." 

Who is going to win the US midterm elections?

Relying on polls have been a tenuous business in recent history

But at this stage, FiveThirtyEight, a US politics website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, estimates that the parties will take a house each.

The website forecasts that the Democrats are "slightly favoured" to win the Senate.

Meanwhile, Republicans are "favoured" to win the House. 

Growing inequality is a major concern in the US midterm elections

Remember, there's no single grand winner like a presidential race here. Which means it's possible both parties could "win", or spin the result as a "win" a least.

All Ms Mascaro knows is that it looks like the election result is going to be close and a win might be hard to determine.

"There's a very high likelihood that Congress will again be very split, either very narrowly held by one party or split between one party and the other party," she says.

"And all of that uncertainty is going to provide a lot of challenges for meeting the needs of the country and for delivering on whatever is top of mind for Joe Biden in the White House."

The key thing to watch is which party ends up controlling the Senate and the House.

If Democrats hold onto both, or Republicans win both, that's a big deal. If they split, both sides might try and claim the result as a victory.

What can we learn from past midterm elections?

The main thing is midterm elections have not been kind to the sitting president's party.

There have been 19 midterm elections since World War II. In that time the president's party has picked up more seats just twice.

"Every other modern midterm vote has seen the president's party lose ground, including those with high popularity like Ronald Reagan and George HW Bush," writes ABC Planet America host John Barron.

He explains that historically, the president's party has faired slightly better in the Senate, gaining seats four times in all the midterm elections since World War II.

What topics might influence the result?

Had you asked a couple of months ago the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v Wade — which opened the door for abortion bans and restrictions across the country — might have had an strong influence on the vote. 

Joe Biden makes new abortion pitch ahead of midterms

But for much of 2022 the state of the US economy has been a top issue for voters, according to Pew Research.

Inflation in particular has been the dominant economic topic of concern. 

Are there any important races or states to watch?

The race for Georgia

Who knows what will happen when the votes are cast. 

But it's worth keeping an eye on the handful of states Mr Biden managed to turn in his favour during the 2020 election. 

Those states are: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Do Americans have to vote?

Unlike Australia, voting is not compulsory in the United States. So, politicians and political parties rely on who does, and doesn't, turn out to vote.

And what about the Electoral College?

The Electoral Collage — which is not a place of learning, or a place at all — is a process that US states use to elect the president and vice president

So, its not going to come into play for the midterm election.

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