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Gordon Osinski, Professor in Earth and Planetary Science, Western University

What are the chances an asteroid will impact Earth in 2032?

An artist's rendition of one of the many thousands of near-Earth objects that could potentially impact Earth in the future. (European Space Agency/P.Carril)

For a few days in mid-February, headlines around the world buzzed about the potential for an asteroid to hit the Earth in 2032 — specifically, asteroid 2024 YR4. The chance of this impact rose to a high of 3.1 per cent on Feb. 18.

The number has since dropped to near zero, but this news was a real-life Don’t Look Up moment, and a stark reminder of the threat that asteroid impacts pose to life on Earth.

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