The New Orleans Saints cut their losing streak off at three with a badly-needed home win over the Seattle Seahawks, and some of the growth they’ve displayed in recent weeks can be found in advanced stats like DVOA, EPA, and ANY/A. Things are far from perfect, and there are multiple areas of concern, but some points are beginning to trend in the right direction. Here’s what we’ve learned after Week 5:
Overall
The Saints remained at No. 22 in the Football Outsiders DVOA metric (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), but Taysom Hill’s big plays were not enough to keep them from fielding from the No. 20-ranked offense. The defense also took a slight step back, falling out of the top-10 and into No. 12, while the special teams unit is still ranked worst in the NFL at No. 32: Let’s break it down a bit further on offense and defense:
Offense
- DVOA: No. 20 (Last week: No. 19)
- EPA/Play: No. 24 (Last week: No. 25)
- Success rate: No. 7 (Last week: No. 6)
- Dropback EPA: No.25 (Last week: No. 24)
- Dropback success rate: No. 16 (Last week: No. 12)
- Rushing EPA: No. 15 (Last week: No. 21)
- Rushing success rate: No. 3 (Last week: No. 2)
As we’ve noted before, the EPA (Expected Points Added) and success rate stats from rbsdm.com are reliable indicators of success in different areas, reflecting how effectively teams are moving the ball, converting first downs, and scoring points relative to down and distance.
The offensive numbers remain consistent compared to last week, which was a marked improvement over the previous performance. Andy Dalton isn’t elevating the Saints offense or turning it into a contender, but it is running more smoothly with fewer stops and hiccups than we saw with Jameis Winston under center. Maybe it looks better once Winston is healthy and back in the lineup, but right now it’s just average, rather than a liability – and that’s enough to win some games.
What’s intriguing is the improved rushing numbers. The Saints are converting first downs and scoring touchdowns on the ground when they need to, even if they aren’t constantly popping up gains of 8, 9, and 10 yards. Some of that should be attributed to Taysom Hill’s presence, but most of the credit should go to the offensive line. Right guard Cesar Ruiz in particular has taken a big step forward this season.
Defense
- DVOA: No. 12 (Last week: No. 9)
- EPA/Play: No. 10 (Last week: No. 9
- Success rate: No. 4 (Last week: No. 6)
- Dropback EPA: No. 16 (Last week: No. 20)
- Dropback success rate: No. 12 (Last week: No. 11)
- Rushing EPA: No. 1 (Last week: No. 5)
- Rushing success rate: No. 6 (Last week: No. 10)
A rough-at-times game against Seattle didn’t do much to deflate New Orleans’ numbers on the season, though they did take a step back here or there – allowing too many big plays will do that. The pass rush is still a problem, even if the Saints are averaging 3 sacks a game the last three weeks. But they’re getting off the field on third downs and not allowing many touchdowns inside their own 20-yard line. They’re winning where it matters most. If they can get healthy in the secondary and find more production from the pass rush, the defense will still be right on track.
Andy Dalton
- Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement: No. 3
- Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: No. 3
- Effective yards: No. 3
- QBR: 53.6 (No. 12)
- Completion %: 69.2 (No. 4)
- TD %: 3.8 (No. 15)
- INT %: 1.9 (Tied-No. 13)
- Sack %: 5.5 (Tied-No. 13)
- Yards/Attempt: 8.1 (Tied-No. 5)
- Adjusted Yards/Attempt: 8.0 (No. 7)
- Net Yards/Attempt: 7.42 (No. 4)
- Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt: 7.33 (No. 8)
Let’s keep the disclaimer: Dalton falls in a different tier than Winston at Football Outsiders owing to his smaller sample size (10 to 74 passes; Winston is with the other starters and those who have thrown 75 or more attempts this season) so we shouldn’t directly compare the two with those stats. Instead, Dalton’s peers include Teddy Bridgewater, Zach Wilson, Kenny Pickett, Bailey Zappe, Dak Prescott, and Trey Lance, all of whom have been limited by injuries or status as a backup to the starter. He also didn’t qualify for the 80-play threshold at rbsdm.com, so we’ve got less to work with here than previously with Winston.
All of those rankings are where Dalton would clock in among the league’s leading passers if he qualified for the threshold, but he doesn’t, and the high spots are a product of that limited sample size. His numbers have gone down since last week and they’ll likely continue to recede further as he throws more passes. But what we’re seeing is that Dalton is (for the most part) playing clean football and not hurting the team with tons of turnovers and negative plays. He has made mistakes, and we’re seeing in live action the reasons he isn’t a starting quarterback in this league anymore, but the offense is operating more effectively. Hopefully they can keep it up once Winston is healthy and back in the lineup.
