Three West African countries, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, have announced their immediate withdrawal from the regional bloc known as ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States). The juntas of these coup-hit nations accused the bloc of imposing 'illegitimate, inhumane, and irresponsible' sanctions in response to their coups. This unprecedented move is seen as a major blow to ECOWAS and poses a threat to regional stability.
Established in 1975, ECOWAS aimed to promote cooperation, integration, and economic stability among its 15 member states. Over the years, it has become the region's top political authority, collaborating with states to address various challenges in politics, the economy, and security. With rampant coups and security crises in the region, ECOWAS, under the leadership of Nigeria, plays a crucial role in maintaining stability.
However, many West Africans perceive ECOWAS as failing to represent their interests, particularly regarding the equitable distribution of the region's rich natural resources. This loss of goodwill and support from citizens undermines the effectiveness of the bloc. Oge Onubogu, director of the Africa Program at the Wilson Center think tank, noted that ECOWAS is viewed by some citizens as a 'leaders club' that prioritizes its own interests over those of the people.
According to the ECOWAS treaty, member states seeking to withdraw from the bloc must provide a one-year written notice, after which they cease to be a member. Although the three countries have not officially notified ECOWAS of their decision to withdraw, the bloc has acknowledged their importance and continued membership for now. It is likely that ECOWAS will engage in dialogue with the military leaders of the juntas to ensure regional stability, while the countries seek new partnerships.
The withdrawal of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso from ECOWAS signifies a deteriorating relationship due to the bloc's reliance on sanctions as a means to reverse the coups. Additionally, the juntas' creation of the Alliance of Sahel States in November hints at their desire to legitimize their military governments, seek security collaborations, and become less dependent on ECOWAS.
This withdrawal presents a significant challenge for the sub-region and undermines the collective security mechanism that has been established over the years. It jeopardizes efforts led by ECOWAS to restore civilian rule in the coup-hit countries and may delay the return to democracy, as the juntas are no longer bound by previous transitional timelines imposed to ease sanctions.
The potential fallout from this withdrawal includes the possibility of prolonged military rule, the motivation for coups in other nations, and an opportunity for Russia to expand its presence and interests in Africa. The strained relations between the coup-hit countries and Western nations have created an opening for Russia, which has positioned itself as a non-colonizing country with a growing presence and influence in Africa. Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group are already operating in Mali, partnering with the army in combating armed rebels. Recent reports also indicate strategic cooperation between Russia and Burkina Faso. However, the extent of support these countries can expect from Russia remains uncertain, given the group's track record of persisting security crises and alleged human rights violations in African countries.
The withdrawal of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso from ECOWAS represents a significant turning point in the sub-region's dynamics. It not only undermines the stability and progress achieved by ECOWAS over the last 50 years but also raises concerns about the future of democracy and regional cooperation. The actions and decisions of the coup leaders will have far-reaching consequences for both their countries and the wider West African region.
