Last season, Cardiff Rugby boss Dai Young predicted that little would change in Welsh rugby until the fortunes of Wayne Pivac’s senior men’s squad nosedived.
His comments were met with widespread support throughout the regional level of the game but the idea was never really unpacked.
Wales have enjoyed remarkable success in the Test arena for almost 15 years. There are Welsh teenagers who do not know what it is like to have a national side that are consistently also-rans in major tournaments.
READ MORE: Meeting Wales' wonderkid, two years after the 'crazy' call from Wayne Pivac
But the fear is they might not have long to wait to find out. It’s an idea that has been crystallised by Dragons Director of Rugby Dean Ryan.
Last season, Ryan pushed back on the suggestion that young players, like promising fly-half Will Reed, gain a lot from playing against teams that are far superior. Nor did he feel the regions’ lack of competitiveness prepared someone like Will Rowlands, the Wales second row, for the intensity of Test match rugby.
Speaking on The Rugby Pod, Ryan has now painted a bleak picture of what the not-so-distant future could hold for Wales at the top level unless changes are made to better support the regional game and, perhaps more pertinently, their academy structures.
With many key figures in Pivac’s squad entering the twilight of their Test careers, Ryan questioned whether the next tier of players were being adequately assisted in their development.
He told Jim Hamilton’s podcast: “We have to work out what our answer is, what our funding model is, how do we develop people? How do our players compete at that level over the next three, five years?
“Because if you don’t, ultimately that will play itself out at international level. You can’t keep leaking people from a struggling side to a competitive Six Nations.
“Wales have had a generation that is going to go through change over the next couple of years. Where are the next people coming from and what are their competitive experiences?
“The European (Champions Cup) experiences are the closest, they’re slightly different to internationals but they’re huge games and the intensity is enormous. To play in knockout European games is one of the greatest feelings but it can be as fast and as intense as the internationals.
“Experiencing those things are when players really grow if they’re going to operate in the international arena. Wales just have to work hard to understand what model is going to get us closer to international rugby, so that people can have more winning and competitive experiences (at regional level).”
He added: “The English model is just a treadmill that keeps turning and it’s 12 times of that which keeps generating players.
“The Welsh model has shrunk itself to try and survive at senior regional level. Is there a proper investment around age grade? Is there a proper academy structure? It needs to go back and look at that.
“Because that’s the thing that says: ‘In five years’ time, I’ll start to churn out some players’ but it’s not an easy fix because it hasn’t happened. And if something hasn’t happened, you can’t just switch the lights on and say: ‘It’s going to be okay next year’.”
To dissect Ryan's comments further, the knock-on effect of what he discusses, though never says, is that if the game fails in the Test arena, the whole of Welsh rugby will suffer.
The revenue that Test match rugby generates in sponsorships, ticket sales, hospitality packages and the general matchday experience is crucial. If interest in the Welsh senior team dwindles, which it undoubtedly will if they regress as far as some fear when a golden generation hang up their boots, then what?
The financial impact of that loss of interest will be felt at all levels of the game and recovering from that position will be far more difficult than eradicating the issue before it arises.
Ryan also commented that Welsh rugby was ‘peddling on a static bike’ while everyone else is upping their game.
He said: “At the moment we’re looking year-to-year and asking how do we survive? It’s not enough.
“We’ve got to work out a way in Wales that allows us to compete (at regional level), and not just generate 25 players who operate in the Six Nations.”
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