WELSH support for independence has risen with an equal split of the population believing there should be a referendum in the next year, a new poll shows
The Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll indicates that, if don’t knows are removed, 38% of people would vote Yes if there were to be a referendum tomorrow on the question "should Wales be an independent country?".
The results were 53% for No, 33% for Yes – up two percentage points from July - with 14% saying don’t know.
Of note, on the question of whether an independence referendum should take place—and if so, when — 34% would support a referendum on Welsh independence being held in the next year, while the same number would oppose one being held in this timeframe.
The poll also showed belief in the pro-independence side being able to win a referendum is increasing.
Some 45% of Welsh voters said they would expect the Unionist side to win if a referendum were held in the next six months, while 31% (up three points since July) believe Yes would triumph.
Almost a third of Welsh voters (32%) also said Scotland voting for independence would make them more likely to support Welsh independence, although a plurality of 43% said it would make them neither more nor less likely to support it.
Wales is on the march - there’s no turning back now. This is our generation- the generation that will deliver #IndyWales for all our futures.#Annibyniaeth pic.twitter.com/QqDLthb3n6
— YesCymru 🏴 (@YesCymru) August 16, 2023
YesCymru celebrated the result on social media. They tweeted: "Wales is on the march - there’s no turning back now.
"This is our generation- the generation that will deliver #IndyWales for all our futures."
Director of YesCymru, Geraint Thomas, added: “It is obvious that the appetite within Wales for independence from Westminster is growing daily. The surge towards the Yes vote in a future referendum has been growing at an average of a percentage point a month for the past 6 months - which is pretty unprecedented.
“The people of Wales have had enough. With the onset of proper discussions in homes and communities across Wales, our citizens are almost invariably coming to the same conclusions - the only way to secure the prospects of our future generations is through self-determination. A future tethered to Westminster has, and will always be to the detriment of the people of Wales.
“The surge in the overall poll in favour of a yes vote is only half the story. The true picture lies in our younger demographics. All of the younger polling groups (under the age of 35) poll above 50%, and the 18-24 year olds polling at 55%. There is renewed energy and confidence within Wales’ younger generation, and they overwhelmingly see their outward looking independent nation as the only way to secure their future.”
Support for the Welsh pro-independence party Plaid Cymru also increased by four points to 20% - putting them just one behind the Tories on 21%. The Labour Party, meanwhile, leads with 37%.
The poll was conducted between August 13 and 14.
