The public’s dissatisfaction with Rishi Sunak’s government runs deep. In his first year in No 10, the prime minister led the Conservatives to six byelection defeats – though many Tories believed they never stood a chance with the vote in West Lancashire.
On paper the results show that national polling, which puts the Labour party ahead of the Conservatives with a 20-point lead, is pretty accurate. Labour figures believe the anti-Tory sentiment that is radiating from the polls is very reflective of the mood in Wellingborough – which will become the latest site for a byelection showdown.
This vote piles pressure on Keir Starmer’s party to pull off another dazzling victory as it did when overturning a near 20,000-vote Conservative majority in Tamworth, which is arguably a comparable constituency to that of Peter Bone – whose constituents triggered the byelection after his suspension. Labour figures have been campaigning for the last six weeks, pitching the party’s candidate, Genevieve Kitchen, as a fresh start filled with hope. They believe they have reason for cautious optimism.
Tamworth and Wellingborough have similar levels of mid-level deprivation and strongly voted in favour of Brexit. Many senior Tories said they lost the Tamworth byelection because of the lack of top-level support, leaving many in the party frustrated and dispirited.
The cabinet minister Mel Stride said the Tories would “fight for every single vote” in the constituency, which has been deemed a safe Tory seat since 2010. At the 2019 general election Bone won it with a huge majority of 18,540.
But Sunak faces a unique headache in this constituency because of the threat not just of Labour but from the Nigel Farage-founded Reform party. Sunak’s pledge to “stop the boats” will only highlight the Conservatives’ failure to get a complete grip on immigration, as it has repeatedly promised over the last 13 years, and disgruntled Tory voters may stay at home.
Additionally, constituents are still feeling the pinch of the cost of living crisis and failing public services. Many may be willing to vote tactically against the government to send them a message by outrightly backing Labour. Or worse for Sunak, they may send the Tories a real message and vote for the Reform party or even back Bone as an independent candidate.
Given the constituency’s backing of Brexit, some pollsters expect a 2015 Ukip-esque vote for the Reform party in this byelection. The Conservatives are yet to put forward their own candidate, and it is still not known if Bone will fight for his seat as an independent.
But if he were to stand, it would “create a whole other element of confusion, which will be very unhelpful for the Conservatives as you’ll have a three-way split of loyal Tories, a personal vote going to Bone, and a Reform vote”, Will Jennings, professor of political science at the University of Southampton, said.
“In that situation, when you have three options on the right and the tactical vote coalescing to Labour, Starmer’s party could sneak in on a not very large swing, with not a very large increase in its own vote. A lesson we might draw from the Mid-Bedfordshire byelection is that it’s possible to win a byelection on a relatively low share of the vote.”
In any normal parliament, this close to a general election, the possibility for an opposition party to overturn an 18,000-strong majority would be deemed outrageous, a Labour figure campaigning in the constituency said. “But Bone’s poor record as a constituency MP and his conduct in parliament means having a candidate like Kitchen, who has dedicated her life to helping people, presents a great contrast between what they’ve had and what they could have if they backed Labour,” they added. “Winning Wellingborough is getting to general election landslide-win territory.”
Labour Together’s director of research, Christabel Cooper, said: “The 2019 general election supposedly demonstrated a ‘great realignment’ in UK politics where socially conservative voters had permanently turned towards the Tories. Even if Labour comes close in Wellingborough it shows that this ‘realignment’ has completely unravelled in the face of an economic and public services crisis.”
