In our weekly Air Yards Breakdown, we’ll take a look at who led the NFL in this category and also go one step further. Air yards can be further split into “prayer yards.” Prayer yards are just what they sound like—air yards on passes that are deemed uncatchable. In other words, targets that the receiver doesn’t have a prayer of catching. Prayer yards lead to a player’s boom-bust potential.
Sources for all data can be found at the end of the article.
On to Week 9:
Week 8 Air Yards Leaderboard pic.twitter.com/lOypYq1Z0o
— Dan Falkenheim (@thefalkon) November 2, 2023
Week 8 Summary
CeeDee Lamb Delivers a Superstar Performance
The Cowboys offense featured a few key shifts coming out of the bye week, including where CeeDee Lamb lined up. He played outside 38.5% of the time on Sunday, an increase from 26.6% in prior weeks, and he set single-game career highs with 12 receptions, 158 yards and two touchdowns. Lamb repeatedly crushed the Rams on slants against man coverage and made a textbook high-point grab for a 24-yard gain early in the fourth quarter.
Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports
D Magazine’s Dan Morse also noted how the Cowboys used motion at the snap more frequently than before, passed more and attacked further down the field. As a result, Lamb crossed 100 air yards for the first time this season. All are positive indicators for a renewed Dallas offense if those trends continue, arriving just in time for divisional games against the Eagles, Giants and Commanders in the next four weeks.
DeAndre Hopkins Thrives with Will Levis
With Ryan Tannehill sidelined with a right high ankle sprain, rookie quarterback Will Levis stepped in and flourished against what had been a stingy Falcons pass defense. His arm strength was on full display on two strikes of 40-plus air yards to Hopkins—both going for touchdowns. Levis connected with Hopkins for three touchdowns in total and hit Nick Westbrook-Ikhine for another.
His ball placement wasn’t perfect. Levis missed Treylon Burks wide on a 40-yard go ball, creating a 50-50 situation. He also threw slightly behind tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo, leading to a tough drop on what could’ve been a 20-yard completion with plenty of catch-and-run potential. There was enough in Levis’s game to be excited about, and he will be put to the test against a Steelers defensive unit with a stout pass rush but a beatable secondary on a short week.
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Jaylen Waddle Comes Through With His Best Game Yet
Prior to Week 8, Waddle averaged only two targets of 15-plus air yards per game. He tripled that against the Patriots—seeing six such targets en route to a WR6 finish on 25.1 PPR points. He found the soft spot in the Patriots zone for a 17-yard gain, torched corner J.C. Jackson for an easy 23-yard grab and took advantage of wide-open space left by defenders chasing Tyreek Hill for a game-sealing touchdown. The Dolphins and Chiefs have the only matchup this week with an over/under above 50 points and are set up for an explosive game in Frankfurt, Germany.
Week 9 Lookahead
DK Metcalf Is Due for a Blow-Up Game
In healthy games in Week 6 and Week 8, Metcalf finished with 147 and 152 air yards, respectively, but scored less than 12 PPR points in each contest. Luck hasn’t gone his way: He had a 14-yard end zone fade glance off his fingertips and struggled to produce against the Browns due to a few off-target throws and tight coverage from Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson. (Head coach Pete Caroll also revealed Metcalf was “sick as a dog” the night before the game.)
Since the Seahawks’ bye in Week 5, only Michael Pittman Jr. has more red-zone targets (8) than Metcalf (7). Metcalf faces a stiff Ravens defense on Sunday, but he will have plus matchups against the Commanders and Rams in Weeks 10 and 11 to make good on his opportunities.
Trey McBride Feasts During Garbage Time
McBride became the eighth tight end to eclipse 100 air yards this season and finished as the TE1. Garbage time helped him get there. Seven of his 10 catches and 63 of his 117 air yards came when the Cardinals had less than a 2.5% chance to win. Even outside of garbage time, though, Arizona’s usage of its second-year tight end offered encouraging signs. Joshua Dobbs missed a tight-window throw to McBride high on a 20-yard route over the middle and McBride failed to reel in a 13-yard crosser.
Both targets amounted to zero fantasy points, but it’s a positive sign to see McBride targeted on real routes rather than solely relying on check-downs.
Kirk Cousins Injury Lets Air Out of Vikings Offense
Speaking of Dobbs… the Vikings traded a sixth-round pick for the journeyman backup (and a seventh-round pick in return) to keep their season on life support. Taking a step back, losing Cousins to a torn Achilles hurts. He was playing some of the best football of his career, ranking sixth in adjusted EPA per play (0.177) and eighth in completion percentage over expectation (4.3%). Dobbs ranks 28th and 26th in those same stats, despite playing better than expected. Once more, 66% of Cousins’s air yards have been catchable compared to 49% for Dobbs.
Both Dobbs and 25-year-old rookie quarterback Jaren Hall will bring above-average athleticism and more playmaking ability with their legs. (Hall will likely hold the starting job until Dobbs is acclimated to the offense.) However, the Vikings’ ceiling will be capped without Cousins’ accuracy and command of the system.
Quick Prayer Yards Notes
Week 8 Prayer Yards Leaderboard pic.twitter.com/ucZE2YnFFj
— Dan Falkenheim (@thefalkon) November 2, 2023
- It will be hard for Davante Adams’s situation to get much worse. The Raiders cleaned house by firing coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler, opening the possibility for positive change.
- 127 of Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs’s 189 total air yards came while the Packers were down by two touchdowns with less than three minutes left.
- Nico Collins has fizzled since Week 4. The Texans have been one of the run heaviest teams in the NFL, but Collins will benefit if the team’s play-calling tendencies ever trend in the other direction.
Data Sources
- Yards, receptions, touchdowns, air yards and EPA pulled via nflverse
- Catchable air yards, prayer yards and play action data from FTN Data via nflverse
- Personnel data pulled from Joseph Hefner’s formations app
- Route participation pulled via Fantasy Life’s Utilization Report
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