Welcome to the Week 7 Cheat Sheet and we got two surprises on Thursday night. First, an actual display of offense occurred during Thursday Night Football. A total of 76 points were scored in the matchup between the Saints and victorious Cardinals. To recap, over the previous two TNF games, we endured 19 points in Week 6 and 21 points in Week 5. To the patient fantasy managers waiting on DeAndre Hopkins, you were instantly rewarded with a 10-catch, 103-yard game and a near 50% target share.
I have to give props to Andy Dalton for accounting for six TD passes. I know we've all heard this joke, but Dalton tossed four TDs to Saints receivers and then gifted the Cardinals' defense with back-to-back pick sixes. Oof. And depending on who you root for, the second surprise may be good news or bad news.
1. Don't Call It a CoMebaCk
The 49ers traded four picks to Carolina for RB Christian McCaffrey. San Francisco gave up 2023 second-, third- and fourth-round picks and a 2024 fifth-round pick.
This is an interesting move, as the 49ers are only on the hook for $690,000 this year and nearly $26 million in dead cap stays with Carolina. I think it's a great move for San Francisco on paper. Jeff Wilson hasn't been that great and their offense is flat. This gives them major flexibility at a position that's been riddled with injuries between Elijah Mitchell and rookie Tyrion Davis-Price. If there's a counterpart to Deebo Samuel in the NFL, it would be McCaffrey. A running back who's often used more like a wide receiver now paired with a wide receiver who's often used more like a running back.
The NFC West is a logjam, so any separation would be huge. The 49ers, Rams and Seahawks are all 3-3. The Cardinals are right there with the group at 3-4. Only San Francisco has a positive point differential (122-89, +33) while Los Angeles (104-126, -22), Seattle (146-163, -17) and Arizona (156-176, -20) are all in the negative. This addition to an already deep backfield gives the 49ers the flexibility to trade somebody like Wilson or Tevin Coleman to get back a small piece of what was given up for CMC. The 49ers also got back a mostly healthy LT Trent Williams, DE Nick Bosa and S Jimmie Ward at practice on Wednesday. Including McCaffrey, that's three All-Pro players and a decent veteran starter. Not a bad couple days for the Niners.
For the rest of this Week 7 Cheat Sheet, I don't want to spend much time focusing on the marquee fantasy players across the league, and instead I want to focus on borderline players who are either at the end of your starting lineup, the end of your bench or near the top of a 12-team league's waiver wire.
2. Return of the Mac Jones
Me and Mac Jones. We got a thing goin on. I'm betting that Jones will be playing on Monday night against the Bears. On paper, Chicago has allowed the fourth-fewest points to receivers. They've only allowed one WR to hit double-digit points since Week 1 (Week 5, Justin Jefferson, 27.4 points). They got a Week 1 Trey Lance in the rain, somehow shut down Aaron Rodgers in Week 2, Davis Mills in Week 3, Daniel Jones in Week 4, Kirk Cousins in Week 5 and Carson Wentz in Week 6. Not exactly Murderers’ Row.
The Packers offense was still gelling in Week 2 (and it's still hit or miss) and I'm happy to dismiss the Bears' defense overachieving against the rest offhand. But for argument's sake, I'll explain why I'm very high on Jones in what should be a tough matchup. The Bears struggle against the run, with the sixth-worst run defense DVOA. PFF also grades their pass rush dead-last in the NFL. So their run defense isn't stopping anyone and they're reliant on coverage, not pass rush, to slow down the pass game. This isn't a good combination.
Chicago is 0-3 on the road and I can't imagine them getting game script in their favor with their troubles in pass protection. With Damien Harris rejoining Rhamondre Stevenson in the backfield, I anticipate the Patriots will lean on the run and create play-action opportunities for Jones to connect with Jakobi Meyers and DeVante Parker downfield. And if Jones doesn't play, I trust Bailey Zappe will do more or less the same.
3. Tyler Allgeier Catches Fire
Well he hasn't yet, but he will this week! Allow me to explain. After missing Week 1, Allgeier's playing time has trickled up and with Cordarrelle Patterson on short-term injured reserve, we can trust this playing time trend to continue. The Falcons have covered in three straight as a road underdog, so we're all probably underestimating them.
Cincinnati's defense allows 1.49 yards before contact, ninth-worst in the league and PFF grades their run defense at 10th-worst. However, they've only allowed three TDs to running backs and have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher. What explains the discrepancy? Mitch Trubisky in Week 1, Cooper Rush in Week 2, Joe Flacco in Week 3, Teddy Bridgewater in Week 4 and Andy Dalton in Week 6. O.K., I skipped a win over Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Week 5. But we've got inefficient quarterbacks, and it's almost always the backup. Marcus Mariota isn't a world-beater but the Falcons have proven to be very efficient in their ground game. Football Outsiders ranks the Falcons as the seventh-best DVOA offense (13th in pass, first in run). With around 15 touches as a baseline with room for more, I'm hoping an early lead helps push game script to Atlanta's run-heavy preference. An injury keeping out Bengals' key run cog LB Logan Wilson is icing on the cake.
4. My Week 7 Friggin' Bums
Every week, I'll highlight eight players (two at each position) that I like who are rostered in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues. You can think of them as desperation plays or salary punts in DFS contests.
- QB Mac Jones, NE (vs. CHI)
- QB Davis Mills, HOU (at LV)
- RB Kenyan Drake, BAL (vs. CLE)
- RB D'onta Foreman, CAR (vs. TB)
- WR Wan'Dale Robinson, NYG (at JAC)
- WR Michael Gallup, DAL (vs. DET)
- TE Mo Alie-Cox, IND (at TEN)
- TE O.J. Howard, HOU (at LV)
5. Week 7 SI Fantasy Must-Reads
Before setting your lineups, make sure you check out some of the world-class fantasy lowdown from our SI Fantasy analysts:
