Week 1 got off to about as well a start as it could have for my prop bets. I hit on five of my six official recommendations — looking at you, Austin Ekeler and your 2.6 yards per carry — as well as both my unofficial suggestions to open with a proper 5-1 record. Or, a 7-1 resume if you squint hard.
This could be an omen for a good season. Or it could just be the emergency parachute that briefly slows my descent through the atmosphere as my picks plummet back toward the earth. I’ll be honest with you; it’s probably 50/50.
The good news is there are still some lines out there that don’t make a ton of sense, even after Week 1’s data dump. The bad news is Vegas remains much smarter than I am and a regression is coming. Will it be in Week 2? Let’s find out.
As always, official plays in bold.
- Trey Lance longest pass OVER 33.5 yards. He’s hit this number in three of his last four games and did so last week in monsoon-like conditions in Chicago. San Francisco is loaded with run-after-catch monsters and Lance has something to prove against a secondary now missing Jamal Adams. I’ll push this rocket until it explodes, which might be in Week 2.
- Devin Duvernay OVER 28.5 receiving yards. Duvernay entered the circle of trust last week, catching all four of his targets for 51 yards and two touchdowns in a game where Lamar Jackson threw the ball 30 times. It stands to reason Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews will draw the attention of Miami’s star-dotted secondary, which should leave the elusive third-year wideout the space to rack up the yards-after-catch to torch this prop.
- Pat Freiermuth OVER 34.5 receiving yards and 3.5 receptions. Mitchell Trubisky targeted him 10 times in the season opener — more than anyone on the roster but Diontae Johnson. The Patriots limited the Dolphins’ tight ends to two catches last week, but that was as much a function of Mike Gesicki’s limited purchase in Mike McDaniel’s passing offense as anything else. Also, I think Mike Tomlin is going to do everything in his power to take out nearly 15 years of frustration on New England.
- Christian Kirk OVER 57.5 receiving yards and 4.5 receptions. Kirk has been Trevor Lawrence’s huckleberry and had 12 targets in Week 1, seven of which came in the second half as the Jags rallied back from a couple of deficits against the Commanders. If they’re trailing vs. the Colts in Week 2, he’ll be the top guy once more. Like the Lance prop, I’m gonna push this one until the numbers become untenable or it falls apart entirely.
- Chase Edmonds UNDER 44.5 rushing yards. Edmonds averaged 2.1 yards per carry last week and it’s a competitive backfield in Miami. Another slow start could cut into his snap count, especially against an always-tough Ravens D.
Here are the bets I like, just not enough to include in the official section above (2-0 last week, 2-0 for the season to date):
- Mitchell Trubisky UNDER 219.5 passing yards
- James Robinson OVER 44.5 rushing yards.
- Sony Michel UNDER 16.5 rushing yards.
Last week: 5-1 (.833)
Season to date: 5-1 (.833)
