Good morning, and strap on your Homer Simpson secret nap spectacles: it’s budget day. Coming into this one, the big question about Jeremy Hunt is this: is he, as friends of his recently told the FT, “realistic enough to know he is unlikely to be chancellor this time next year” – or does he think that his decisions today can give the Conservatives a serious chance of winning the election? Does he want to bolster his economic legacy – or give his many vulnerable backbenchers something to tell voters about?
The truth is likely to be somewhere in the middle: tax cuts to satisfy the Tory faithful, with just enough cover on affordability to keep fiscal watchdog the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) happy. Today’s newsletter is a simple guide to what that means: what the chancellor will do, the dubious sums that will help him afford it, and what it’ll mean for you. Here are the headlines.
