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BOM says flash floods, river rises possible as rain returns to flood zones

The rain is back this week but should not be as severe as the flooding rains earlier in the month. (Supplied: Laurie Wilson)

It is set to be another soggy seven to 10 days, with showers and storms forecast to linger along the east coast.

The rain is not expected to be as heavy as the deluge that led to the recent flood emergency but, with catchments already sodden, flash flooding and renewed river rises are possible. 

"The rainfall amounts we are expecting will only be a fraction of what we saw earlier this month. But, still, quite a bit will fall," senior Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Jonathan How said.

Accumulated falls are expected to be in the range of 100 to 150 millimetres for much of the New South Wales coast over the next week or so. 

Daily totals are tipped to be about 20–40mm with daily falls of 50–80mm possible across the north coast. 

Parts of southern Queensland, eastern Victoria, and western Tasmania should also expect significant rain. 

Large rainfall accumulations are forecast for many parts of the country over the next week. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)

"Probably the heaviest falls will be north of Sydney and into the Northern Rivers," Mr How said.

With storms also on the cards, Mr How warned isolated falls of more than 200mm were possible. 

Could we see more flooding? 

The rain may not be expected to be as heavy as last time around but with catchments so wet it is not going to take much to get the creeks flowing again. 

"We're not expecting widespread flooding," Mr How stated. 

"But because everything is so saturated, once we get the initial 10–20mm that will really wet the catchments again and anything beyond that has the potential to cause flash flooding, some river rises and or some minor flooding." 

Where exactly that might be is difficult to say at this point. 

"It does definitely depend on where the heavier falls do come with those thunderstorms," Mr How said

Warnings are likely to evolve over the next few days so flood-prone communities are encouraged to keep their wits about them over the coming days. 

"Rainfall can be quite upsetting and can be triggering for some people," Mr How said.

"The good news is that we're not expecting the significant and major flooding that we saw.

"But it still could cause disruptions to clean-up and generally cause a bit of angst among the communities." 

A reminder to check in with flooded friends and family even after the waters have fallen. 

What is causing the east coast rain? 

Mr How explained that it had all been set up by a cold front that moved through yesterday. 

From today, a blocking high is expected to settle in the Tasman sea, similar to the set-up that brought the flooding rains at the beginning of the month. 

"That's going to direct a very moist onshore flow over the next seven to 10 days across eastern New South Wales," he said. 

A trough will see rain on the east coast, while ex-tropical cyclone Charlotte is expected to bring rain to the west this weekend. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)

Over the next few days, an upper-level atmospheric disturbance is also expected to add to the mix — further intensifying the rain today and tomorrow. 

Showers are likely to persist into next week but, at this stage, the focus is expected to be on the next three to five days, according to Mr How. 

Cyclone in the west 

But rain on the east coast is not the only weather news at the moment. 

With all the other news going on, you might have missed Tropical Cyclone Charlotte spinning away off the Western Australian coast over the past few days. 

Charlotte got all the way up to a category-four system but has been weakening as it has moved south. 

As it moves south, Mr How explained that was expected to undergo "extratropical transition".

"So still maintaining those strong winds around the centre and heavy rainfall but no longer that warm core that we use to classify it as a tropical cyclone," he said.

The models consistently forecast the system moving south but remaining off the coast through today and Friday but from then the models diverge. 

Meaning there are many ways things could play out. 

Mr How said, at the moment, they were expecting the system to mostly remain off-shore with showers pushing onto the coast around Geraldton and down towards Perth. 

"But we can't rule out at this stage that the system will cross the coast over the weekend," he said.

"It won't be a tropical cyclone, but still could have some gale-force winds and some heavy bursts of rain."

A year on from Cyclone Seroja, Cyclone Charlotte could be bringing back bad memories for those in Kalbarri. (ABC News: Hugh Sando )

It could be a nasty reminder for communities like Kalbarri and Geraldton still reeling from Cyclone Seroja's impact last year. 

But at least, at this stage, it is not expected to cross the coast at tropical cyclone severity. 

"One to watch, for sure," Mr How said.

And there's still over a month of the tropical wet season to go, folks. 

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