Closing summary
Time for a recap.
Britain’s economy is showing slightly more momentum than expected, the Bank of England’s chief economist Huw Pill said this afternoon.
Pill also flagged that pay growth is rising a little faster than the central bank forecast last month. More here.
UK retail chain WH Smith has been hit by a cyber-attack in which company data was accessed illegally, including the personal details of current and former employees.
Shares of crypto-focused bank Silvergate almost halved today, after it said it was evaluating its ability to survive as a going concern, and would miss a deadline to file its annual report.
The oligarch Oleg Deripaska has said Russia could run out of money by next year unless the country secures investment from “friendly” countries as western sanctions bite.
Russia’s central bank chief has revealed that existing capital controls introduced after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine will be extended.
Inflation across the eurozone remained higher than expected last month. The annual consumer prices index rose by 8.% in February, only slightly lower than January’s 8.6%, while core inflation continued to climb.
Back in the UK, more than 3,000 bus drivers will strike in the West Midlands over pay, the Unite union announced.
People in their 50s and 60s are re-thinking their decision to take early retirement after being made poorer by Britain’s cost of living crisis, a thinktank has suggested.
Taylor Wimpey is planning to cut jobs as the housebuilder warned of slowing sales in the latest sign of a downturn in the UK housing market.
ITV has insisted its reputation is intact despite the controversy over Jeremy Clarkson, as the broadcaster said it expected a steep drop in advertising sales this year as the economy weakens.
The world’s largest brewer, AB InBev, has posted its first slump in beer volumes since the pandemic in the final quarter of last year, despite the sales boost from the football World Cup.
And in a blow to the City of London, building materials company CRH is exploring moving its primary stock market listing to New York, to get a better valuation. Shares in CRH have jumped over 7% so far today.
BoE's Pill: UK economy may be stronger than anticipated
The UK economy may be slightly stronger than the Bank of England estimated at the start of February, its chief economist says.
Huw Pill is speaking at Wales Week in London, at the Institute of Directors. And he points out that data released since the Bank’s Inflation Report was issued on 2 February has been better than expected.
Pill says:
Survey indicators that have become available since the publication of the forecast have surprised to the upside, suggesting that the current momentum in economic activity may be slightly stronger than anticipated.
In that February report, the Bank’s forecasts had predicted that real GDP would fall slightly over the coming quarters, as high energy prices and higher market interest rates continue to weigh on spending.
But, the downturn is expected to be rather milder than previous recessions, Pill points out with this chart:
A week after the Bank’s February report, the UK avoided falling into recession after growth stagnated in the final quarter of 2022.
Pill also points out that private sector regular pay growth – which was published after the MPC’s forecast was finalised – was slightly higher than forecast at the end of last year.
But, he adds, some “high-frequency indicators of wages” have fallen quite sharply recently.
