Driving up the bigger of the two Rhondda valleys, it is hard to believe that not so long ago it was part of one of the biggest coal-producing areas in the world. The terrace houses built for the men who worked the pits are still there, but of the mines themselves nothing remains. Nature has reclaimed the spoil tips. The scars of industrialisation are hard to spot.
But appearances can be deceptive. The human scarring from deindustrialisation has been deep and long-lasting. The Welsh valleys stretching north from Cardiff have low levels of employment and high levels of deprivation. Income per head is among the lowest in the UK and low pay is endemic.
Attempts to level up the valleys are nothing new. The first regeneration plan for south Wales dates back to the 1930s, a time when production of the Rhondda’s high-quality coal was already in decline. Just south of Pontypridd is the Treforest industrial estate, a legacy of interwar regional policy. Before he became a megastar, Tom Jones was an apprentice glove-cutter in one of its factories.
In the past, the geography of the area made levelling up even more of a challenge than elsewhere. In South Yorkshire, for example, plenty of flat land and proximity to motorways has led to a boom in distribution and warehousing jobs. The valleys, by contrast, are steep-sided and – especially the farther north you go from Cardiff – remote.
“If you think of the UK regions in terms of football’s Premiership,” says Calvin Jones, economics professor at Cardiff University, “the same three regions – Northern Ireland, the north-east of England and Wales – have been in the bottom three for the past 40 years.”
The problems have long been recognised. West Wales and the Valleys was one of the two regions of the UK singled out for special financial assistance by Brussels, and the issue arises of what happens to funding now that the UK has left the EU. The Welsh government says it is being short-changed and would be receiving more funding had Brexit never happened. The UK government says it is fully replacing EU funding to the regions.
It is not just the amount of funding that is at issue, but the way it is allocated. Meirion Thomas, the Wales director of the Industrial Communities Alliance, an umbrella body for local authorities in old manufacturing and mining heartlands, says London’s insistence on competitive bidding for funds is a mistake.
“Under the old system, overall objectives were set in Brussels but priorities were decided locally,” he says. “The emphasis on strategic projects became inbuilt in local authorities and the university sector. With levelling-up funding, that has disappeared. Forcing local authorities to bid against each other for cash prevents partnership and a more strategic approach.”
Public and private investment has made some difference. Thomas says it is possible to see green shoots, but not on a scale that would be transformative. To the extent that the outlook is not as bleak as it was in the immediate aftermath of the pit closures of the 1980s and 1990s, it is because of the spillover effects from strong growth in Cardiff and along the M4 corridor. But it would be a mammoth task for Cardiff to pull up the valleys on its own.
Two big infrastructure projects should help improve connectivity. To the north, the conversion of the Heads of the Valleys road into a dual carriageway will provide a link between the M50 and the ports of south Wales. The South Wales Metro upgrade is an £800m investment in electrifying and increasing the frequency of trains running through the valleys.
The hope is that better access will reverse the decades-old brain drain and attract higher-paid workers from Cardiff and beyond. Vikki Howells, Labour member of the Senedd for Cynon Valley, says: “The main challenge is not unemployment, it’s low-paid employment. It is not a shortage of jobs: it is a shortage of jobs paying a decent wage so you don’t have to rely on food banks.”
Optimists, such as Andrew Barry, deputy leader of Merthyr Tydfil council, believe the transport links could be a gamechanger. His town, he says, once a centre of the iron industry, will benefit from people who can work from home or are prepared to commute into Cardiff. His ambition is to make Merthyr part of the Welsh government’s compound semiconductor cluster, which is based on Newport.
“You can appreciate how green and pleasant it is here again. Pre-industrialisation, this is how it was,” Barry says. “It is still possible to buy a house in Merthyr for £100,000-£150,000 and it is becoming a more attractive place given the changing nature of work.”
Jones doubts whether the current incarnation of levelling up will be any more successful than past attempts, due to the inherent tension between the desire to help people find a future and the free movement of capital.
“The Welsh government doesn’t control the economic levers. Nobody in these global corporations cares about Wales,” he says, suggesting the way forward is to a steady-state economy “where the maximisation of shareholder value is not the driving force for the majority of economic activity”.
“We are crap at capitalism in Wales, so let’s do something different and try to improve the wellbeing of the people,” says Jones.
“There is a huge mismatch of labour demand and supply, and there has been since 1919, which was the peak of coal production. It was good coal, too: jet black. That’s all gone, but there are still a lot of people left.”
