Predicting Formula 1 standings after 2026's sweeping regulation changes initially appears easier on the surface, because on the bigger gaps between the teams. Most observers agree there were three tiers of teams in Bahrain, with a decent gap in between them.
First up is the leading pack of Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull, followed by a midfield group of Alpine, Haas, Racing Bulls, Williams and Audi. Finally, Aston Martin and Cadillac look like they will be starting the campaign on the back foot.
But Bahrain is just an early, barely reliable snapshot of what will be a gruelling 24-race, nine-month war of attrition as the development race promises to be relentless, so our writers have also had to take into account their confidence in teams being able to upgrade their cars mid-season.
Constructors: This is how we voted
| Overall | Ronald Vording | Jake Boxall-Legge | Filip Cleeren |
| 1. Mercedes | Mercedes | Mercedes | Mercedes |
| 2. Ferrari | Ferrari | Ferrari | McLaren |
| 3. McLaren | McLaren | McLaren | Ferrari |
| 4. Red Bull | Red Bull | Red Bull | Red Bull |
| 5. Alpine | Alpine | Alpine | Alpine |
| 6. Haas | Haas | Haas | Williams |
| 7. Racing Bulls | Racing Bulls | Racing Bulls | Haas |
| 8. Williams | Williams | Williams | Racing Bulls |
| 9. Audi | Audi | Audi | Aston Martin |
| 10. Aston Martin | Aston Martin | Aston Martin | Audi |
| 11. Cadillac | Cadillac | Cadillac | Cadillac |
Mercedes beats Ferrari and McLaren
Pound for pound, Mercedes has looked the strongest outfit in Bahrain, courtesy of some ominous-looking long runs on Pirelli's medium tyres, and few observers we have spoken to have doubted its place atop the pecking order as we head into Melbourne. If anything, a lot of rival engineers and drivers suspect Mercedes has kept plenty of power-unit performance in the pocket.
But other than boasting a strong HPP powertrain, the W17 looks a well-born, good-handling car, fielded by a team that is well placed to develop it. The only caveat is that the bulletproof reliability seen in Barcelona wasn't quite there anymore in Bahrain, leaving Kimi Antonelli short on laps.
If Mercedes was a unanimous pick for top spot, our opinions diverged here. Ronald and Jake picked Ferrari as 2026's runner-up; the Scuderia was demonstrably up there on the timesheets alongside Mercedes as one of the two fastest teams in Bahrain testing.
Ferrari wasn't only fast and productive, but also showed off some eye-catching innovations over the second Bahrain test, including an exhaust winglet and a fully rotating rear wing mainplane. The latter is only a test item for now and it is not clear how much performance each part really adds. But what it does is demonstrate that Maranello has dared to innovate again, and team boss Fred Vasseur's calls for Scuderia to be aggressive in its design have clearly not gone unanswered, which should be a good sign.
However, Filip has instead picked McLaren in second as the Woking squad has shown in recent years just how effective it can be at adding performance to a car mid-season. McLaren looks set to start the season battling Red Bull for third. Red Bull has been picked fourth by all our writers, but that team's resurgence under team principal Laurent Mekies, led by four-time world champion Max Verstappen, should also not be underestimated. Having said that, Red Bull does have the potential disadvantage of the relatively inexperienced Isack Hadjar in its second seat while its direct rivals have can boast formidable driver pairings. In any case, the top four battle in 2026 could be fascinating.
Alpine to lead the midfield?
Right now, the battle for best of the rest looks like it could go any way. Alpine and Haas looked particularly promising in Bahrain, with Racing Bulls and Williams in the same bracket. Audi also moved up our estimation courtesy of some fastest short and long runs over the final two days of winter testing as it gets up to speed with its brand-new power unit.
But having sacrificed all of 2025 to start this year on the front foot, Alpine has come out on top of our unanimous pick for fifth, boosted by its switch to Mercedes power units. Haas has been voted in sixth, although Filip is the odd man out again by placing Williams two spots higher than his colleagues, backing the Grove team to make rapid gains through the season as it gets on the weight limit.
Racing Bulls would do well to repeat its 2025 heroics by defending sixth, but our writers think seventh or eighth is more likely.
How bad will things get for Aston Martin?
Audi has been pegged to ninth, which would be a respectable enough result for a team that has come out of a long period of underinvestment, powered by the engine of a first-time manufacturer. While Filip believes Aston Martin can make enough improvements following a disastrous testing campaign to at least have a go at Audi, Ronald and Jake don't share his confidence and have it down in an embarrassing 10th place, with Honda's power unit woes unlikely to be solved in the short term.
That leaves Cadillac as a unanimous pick for last on the grid as F1's first expansion team in a decade. The American-owned squad is aiming for respectability in year one and, on the basis of winter testing, it is on track to achieve that.
Drivers: This is how we voted
| Overall | Ronald Vording | Jake Boxall-Legge | Filip Cleeren |
| 1. George Russell | George Russell | George Russell | George Russell |
| 2. Charles Leclerc | Charles Leclerc | Charles Leclerc | Charles Leclerc |
| 3. Lando Norris | Max Verstappen | Kimi Antonelli | Lando Norris |
| 4. Max Verstappen | Lando Norris | Lando Norris | Max Verstappen |
| 5. Oscar Piastri | Oscar Piastri | Max Verstappen | Oscar Piastri |
| 6. Kimi Antonelli | Kimi Antonelli | Oscar Piastri | Lewis Hamilton |
| 7. Lewis Hamilton | Lewis Hamilton | Lewis Hamilton | Kimi Antonelli |
| 8. Isack Hadjar | Isack Hadjar | Isack Hadjar | Isack Hadjar |
| 9. Pierre Gasly | Pierre Gasly | Pierre Gasly | Pierre Gasly |
| 10. Oliver Bearman | Oliver Bearman | Oliver Bearman | Alex Albon |
Is 2026 finally George Russell's year?
After witnessing McLaren propelling Lando Norris to dizzying heights in 2025, now it is George Russell's turn to do what every F1 driver aims to achieve once in their careers: being in the right place at the right time. Few people will disagree with the notion that Russell has been one of the outstanding drivers of the 2025 F1 season after fine-tuning his craft over a largely frustrating and patience-testing spell with Mercedes. And there is now enough evidence that with a winning car, the Briton can go all the way.
As well as Russell, Charles Leclerc is a unanimous pick for second through a combination of Russell's team-mate Kimi Antonelli's inexperience and our faith in Ferrari to finally get it right. Leclerc is another world-class driver who went through a long period of Ferrari heartbreak without a car befitting his talent, but the signs are there that 2026 could be different.
We couldn't agree at all on our picks for third. Jake clearly believes Mercedes will be a step ahead in 2026 and has seen enough from Antonelli's maiden campaign to elevate him to third, while the young Italian features in neither Ronald's nor Filip's top five.
Despite placing Red Bull fourth, Ronald has gone for the inevitable Max Verstappen to stay in the mix of the drivers' championship. Filip backed McLaren to pip Ferrari by the end in Abu Dhabi and as a result he has also placed a McLaren driver in third – defending champion Lando Norris.
Will our writers look back on these very early 2026 predictions with pride or shame in nine months' time? Given the uncertainty over the new regulations, it could go either way. And that's exactly why F1 2026 will be so fascinating to watch.
