Nigel Farage laid down Reform UK’s target for the capital at the May local elections, saying: “We will win boroughs in London.”
His party is seeking to win control of several councils in Outer London, particularly in the east of the city.
Reform has appeared to be on a roll with the defection of former Cabinet minister Robert Jenrick, ex-Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi and Romford MP Andrew Rosindell from the Conservatives.
However, a new poll for More In Common showed Tory leader Kemi Badenoch’s approval rating has risen to -11, overtaking Mr Farage for the first time since December 2024. with him on -13.
Reform had been due to announce a defection from Labour shortly.
It also recently unveiled its London mayoral candidate, former Tory Westminster councillor Laila Cunningham.
She has sought to portray the local elections as the “first referendum on Sadiq Khan’s London,” despite him standing in three previous mayoral contests.
Reform also appears more likely to win councils from the Tories than from Labour.
Leading pollster and Tory peer Lord Hayward says Reform is focusing on “natural targets” for the party in Outer London, including Bexley, Bromley, Havering, and to a lesser extent Hillingdon.
He believes it is “unlikely” to win Barking and Dagenham from Labour, partly due to demographic changes.
In an in-depth analysis of the looming local elections in London, Lord Hayward said Labour was facing “fierce battles” to retain control of at least 12 boroughs in the capital.
Sir Keir Starmer’s party, he added, faced a “torrid time” at the town hall polls.
The latest Savanta poll, in December, put Labour on a record low of 31% in London in voting intention for Parliament, down from 50% in a YouGov survey ahead of the local elections in 2022, when the borough contests were last fought.
Reform is scrambling to select 1800 people to stand as candidates on May 7 for the party.
It has made law and order the centrepiece of its local election campaign so far, accusing Sir Sadiq of failing to do enough to tackle crime.
Ms Cunningham has argued that London is no longer a safe city and called for Met Police Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley to be fired.
Just days later, Sir Mark published figures showing the number of murders recorded in London had dropped to its lowest level per capita since records began.
There were 97 homicides in the capital in 2025, down 36 per cent from 153 in 2019 and 11 per cent fewer than the 109 in 2024.
Despite London’s growing population, the force said 2025 saw a homicide rate of 1.1 per 100,000 people - safer than comparable global cities such as New York at 2.8, Paris (1.6), Toronto (1.6), Berlin (3.2), Los Angeles (5.6), Chicago (11.7), and Philadelphia (12.3).
Sir Mark said “the results speak for themselves”.
However, there has also been a rise in phone thefts in recent years, and many families are worried about the level of knife crime in the city.
Sir Keir has warned against “talking down” London, with the damage that this can do to the city’s reputation.
