Last week, a leaked Pentagon email left officials in Brussels and Madrid ruffled. It revealed a list of punitive options for allies who refused to assist in the Iran war.
The most shocking proposal? Attempting to suspend Spain from NATO.
But wait a second - is that even possible?
Spain has been Europe’s most vocal voice against the war, denying refuelling and overflight rights at the Rota and Morón bases for strikes against Iran.
While Washington calls this the "absolute baseline" for the alliance, Madrid maintains these bases cannot be used for actions outside the NATO treaty.
However, despite the threats, the US cannot simply evict an alliance member. The founding charter provides no mechanism for suspension, and Article 13 allows only voluntary withdrawal.
Experts point out that Spain is well within its rights to protect its sovereignty.
This is not the first time this has happened. In 1986, both Spain and France closed their airbases to the US during operations against Libya.
And this is where it gets even more interesting: the leak suggests the retaliation could extend well beyond Spain.
The Pentagon is reportedly reviewing diplomatic support for British control of the Falkland Islands after the UK also denied US use of its Royal Air Force bases to attack Iran.
And as it appears the US commitment to NATO is fading, European nations are finally building their own foundations.
Last Wednesday, Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius unveiled the country’s first military strategy for the Bundeswehr, aiming to build Europe’s strongest conventional army by 2039.
The document also acknowledges that with Washington focused on the Indo-Pacific, the European pillar must assume greater responsibility for its own defence.
So, whether this leads to a stronger alliance or a permanent divorce remains the defining question for NATO’s annual summit this July.
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