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Ben James

Warren Gatland's likely Wales World Cup training squad and summer trialists

"He made so many changes, if you didn't get on that field during the Six Nations, you were very unlucky, weren't you," said Shane Williams of Warren Gatland last week.

Certainly, with 29 changes in between the five matches, the Six Nations selections of Wales did represent more of a tombola effort than anything else at times.

Such is the nature of the beast when trying to develop depth and stumble on a winning formula for the World Cup just a matter of months away.

With that being the mantra, it might mean that his wider training squad later this summer is closer to 50 rather than 40.

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Back in 2019, Gatland named a 42-man squad - content with the squad depth Wales had created and keen to keep numbers down to manage things better.

However, the fact he's still trying to build some depth means it's likely he might opt for something closer to the 47-man squad he named in 2015. Or, if there isn't a great deal of new caps to throw out, then at least go bigger in the hope of some more reliable faces coming back from injury and proving themselves again at Test level.

If it seems like short-termism, then that's likely because that's where we're at.

So, going with 47 as the blueprint, who would likely make that squad and who would be desperately unfortunate to miss out?

Forwards

Let's start in the pack. The props largely pick themselves, with Wyn Jones, Gareth Thomas, Rhys Carre, Tomas Francis, Dillon Lewis and Leon Brown likely safe with their squad places. There's unlikely to be any brutal exclusions - as was the case when Rob Evans and Samson Lee were left out in 2019.

Beyond those six, Nicky Smith has seemingly done something to offend Wales coaches of late, but he's still the best scrummaging option on the loose-head. The Ospreys are doing everything they can to keep him in Welsh rugby right now - a bit of love from the national set-up wouldn't go amiss either.

On the other side of the scrum, pickings are slim. Young players like Sam Wainwright and Harri O'Connor are options, but Ospreys prop Tom Botha, who qualifies for Wales this summer, might be worth a look.

Hooker is, again, fairly straightforward if everyone is fit. Ken Owens will go to France as captain, while Dewi Lake, Ryan Elias and Bradley Roberts have all been squad regulars in the past year.

Into the second-row and it's about where Gatland wants to go in terms of youth and experience. Once back from injury, Will Rowlands has to be in the squad.

The Racing 92-bound second-row is Wales' best lock. The question then is who else is selected. All of the drama and turbulence of the Six Nations brought about the reduction of the 60-cap rule to 25 - meaning Cory Hill and Jake Ball come back into contention.

Gatland has maintained that neither has been contacted following the rule change, but the feeling is that, particularly with Hill, that's only a matter of time.

Whether both are selected remains to be seen, but Gatland would likely be keen to rely on some tried and tested bulk in the boiler room. Adam Beard will make it having started every Six Nations match, while former captain Alun Wyn Jones seems to have the legs to make it to one last tournament.

That opens up room for a sprinkling of youth. Rhys Davies or Dafydd Jenkins? On the basis of the Six Nations, you'd say that the latter seems more likely - having impressed against Italy with a physical effort in defence.

Could Gatland use more youth in there? Probably, and that might be the case were either Hill or Ball unwilling to answer the call.

Then there's the back-row - perhaps the hardest part of the squad to second-guess.

Let's begin with the obvious. Taulupe Faletau already has his room key sorted for their base in Versailles, such is the quality of the No. 8. Perhaps Gatland's biggest challenge is finding the right cover at the back of the scrum behind Wales' most recent centurion.

We've seen Aaron Wainwright and Jac Morgan pack down there recently, while Ross Moriarty and Josh Navidi are capable. But the form No. 8 in Wales is the Ospreys' Morgan Morris.

The question is whether he's seen as Test material. Some former Wales players have privately expressed their doubts over his size, but similar slights were likely levelled at Navidi and James Davies in the past. Both of them featured at the 2019 World Cup.

The narrative now isn't whether Morris is deserving of a look - because he's honestly answered that question over the course of the season. It's whether there's enough reasons for him not to get one, be it doubts over his ability to step up or simply the competition.

You just fear it will be the latter that counts against him.

In terms of flankers, Morgan, Tommy Reffell and Justin Tipuric are surely nailed on. But who else?

Christ Tshiunza was seen as the next big thing by Wayne Pivac, but does Gatland share the same mindset? Carrying was one of the work-ons given to the Exeter second-row/back-row hybrid ahead of him missing out on the trips to Rome and Paris.

You'd imagine he'll still feature, but you couldn't be sure. Especially when Dan Lydiate is going "hell for leather" trying to earn a new contract. The mid Walian was at the peak of his powers in South Africa last year and could be perfect for what Gatland wants to do later this year.

Then there's Navidi, who became such a big part of Wales' success in 2019 and 2021. Injuries have hit him hard, but if there's a chance of him getting to France, Gatland might be willing to carry him through the training camps.

What of Moriarty? The weekend showed how playing on the edge can have its downsides. Could that count against him?

Whoever he picks here, there's likely to be two or three players who you'd consider very unlucky to miss out.

Forwards (25):

Props: Wyn Jones (Scarlets), Gareth Thomas (Ospreys), Nicky Smith (Ospreys), Rhys Carre (Cardiff), Tomas Francis (Ospreys), Dillon Lewis (Cardiff), Leon Brown (Dragons), Tom Botha (Ospreys)

Hookers: Ken Owens (Scarlets), Dewi Lake (Ospreys), Ryan Elias (Scarlets), Bradley Roberts (Dragons)

Locks: Adam Beard (Ospreys), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys), Jake Ball (Green Rockets Tokatsu), Cory Hill (Yokohama Canon Eagles), Will Rowlands (Dragons), Dafydd Jenkins (Exeter Chiefs)

Back-row: Taulupe Faletau (Cardiff), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys), Jac Morgan (Ospreys), Tommy Reffell (Leicester Tigers), Aaron Wainwright (Dragons), Josh Navidi (Cardiff), Christ Tshiunza (Exeter Chiefs)

Backs

Moving into the backs division, the first lot is again fairly simple. Kieran Hardy, Tomos Williams and Rhys Webb were the scrum-halves during the Six Nations, while Gareth Davies has been in fine form for the Scarlets.

Fly-half is another one that could be relatively easy. Gareth Anscombe and Dan Biggar are trusted lieutenants of Gatland, while Owen Williams showed his ability to play at this level during the Six Nations.

Perhaps there's room for one wild-card, with Sam Costelow shining as the main man in the Scarlets' backline. He's ahead of Six Nations squad member Rhys Patchell in the pecking order down west and can offer something different.

Of course, it's feasible that Wales look to Joe Hawkins as someone to cover fly-half as well as midfield, reducing the number of 10s they need to bring to the training camps. But the other way to get around that, and negate the lack of established depth in the back-three behind what's already there, is have either Mason Grady or George North as a wing option as well a centre.

That allows you to keep the uncapped Keiran Williams in the squad, ready to finally get a fair crack of the whip. Having been injured for the final matches against Italy and France, the Six Nations ended without the hard-running Ospreys centre seeing any action.

Despite his size, he packs a punch and could offer Wales' midfield some go-forward at a time when carrying options are limited. The same goes for Johnny Williams.

The Scarlets centre has always looked a ready-made Test player, with only injuries keeping him from earning more than five caps to date. But the way he made metres through contact at will on the weekend would endear him to Gatland.

He'll be in the squad. The other midfield option is Nick Tompkins, who endured a frustrating Six Nations but always continues to be a lively presence when given the nod.

Moving into the back-three, it largely picks itself. Josh Adams has struggled for form, but he's a world-class finisher who can also play at full-back - he's a no-brainer regardless of any dip in his game at the moment.

Alex Cuthbert, Rio Dyer and Louis Rees-Zammit are the strongest wing options, while the experienced pair of Leigh Halfpenny and Liam Williams will likely be asked to go again at full-back.

Beyond those, there's not really much in the way of back-three challengers. Ryan Conbeer has gone well, while Steff Evans has been in good form once again.

Then there's Johnny McNicholl, who has looked good for the Scarlets this season after Pivac appeared to end his Test hopes last year.

But the truth is it's hard to see any of them really forcing their way into the mix.

Backs (22):

Scrum-halves: Gareth Davies (Scarlets), Kieran Hardy (Scarlets), Tomos Williams (Cardiff), Rhys Webb (Ospreys)

Fly-halves: Gareth Anscombe (Ospreys), Dan Biggar (Toulon), Sam Costelow (Scarlets), Owen Williams (Ospreys)

Centres: Mason Grady (Cardiff), Joe Hawkins (Ospreys), Keiran Williams (Ospreys)*, Nick Tompkins (Saracens), George North (Ospreys), Johnny Williams (Scarlets)

Back-three: Josh Adams (Cardiff), Alex Cuthbert (Ospreys), Rio Dyer (Dragons), Louis Rees-Zammit (Gloucester), Liam Williams (Cardiff), Leigh Halfpenny (Scarlets)

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