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Barchart
Barchart
Caleb Naysmith

Warren Buffett Warns That During Bubbles, Stock Prices and Earnings Will ‘Diverge,’ But They Can’t ‘Continuously Overperform Their Businesses’

Warren Buffett has spent decades urging investors to separate a company’s underlying economics from the market’s shifting enthusiasm. In Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.B) (BRK.A) 1993 shareholder letter, the CEO revisited a theme that runs through much of his writing: in the short term, stock prices can depart sharply from the progress of the businesses they represent. That performance gap, he suggested, can persist long enough to tempt investors into confusing momentum with durability — even though it rarely becomes a permanent condition.

Buffett framed the issue through the experience of two of Berkshire’s major holdings at the time, writing: “Over time, of course, market price and intrinsic value will arrive at about the same destination. But in the short run the two often diverge in a major way, a phenomenon I've discussed in the past. Two years ago, Coca-Cola (KO) and Gillette, both large holdings of ours, enjoyed market price increases that dramatically outpaced their earnings gains. In the 1991 Annual Report, I said that the stocks of these companies could not continuously overperform their businesses.” 

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