It’s been said Wales have their best chance of beating the All Blacks for many years when the teams square up in Cardiff on Saturday.
Wayne Pivac will hope such words don’t act as a spur to New Zealand, who are hard enough to beat without being revved up ahead of a game.
But 2022 hasn’t been a great year for them to date.
They have lost a series against Ireland, were beaten by South Africa and came unstuck in front of their own supporters against Argentina.
Yet even in such a patchy term by their standards, they still won the Rugby Championship.
Everything's relative.
Read more: Dan Biggar joins Toulon with immediate effect as fly-half cites family reasons
How do Wales rate against them in head to heads?
We take a look.
Leigh Halfpenny 7 v 8 Beauden Barrett
A couple of years ago, some were complaining Barrett wasn’t even the best full-back in his family, let alone in the whole of New Zealand, with many feeling younger sibling Jordie to be the country’s premier No. 15. But here’s the thing: Beauden still has the pace and quickness of thought to wrench a game away from opponents in the blink of an eye.
He also provides an extra playmaking option for the All Blacks.
Can Gareth Anscombe test Barrett’s positioning at the back? Wales will want him to.
If Halfpenny is fit to play, something which has emerged as a real doubt on Friday, he can be relied upon to do what's required. There will be few mistakes and he will be on top of the basics, with bravery turned up to the max.
Louis Rees-Zammit 8 v 7 Caleb Clarke
It’s hard to imagine how Rees-Zammit can keep his feet on the floor after some of the praise he’s received recently, with Austin Healey saying: “Managed the right way he could be as good as David Campese.”
Fair play, the youngster played down the plaudits after his man-of-the-match show for Gloucester against Exeter Chiefs, showing admirable maturity and saying it was a bit soon in his career for such talk.
But he is fast enough to leave an opposition’s entire defensive plan in ruins.
What's also been impressive about him over the past year is that he's worked hard to become a more complete player.
Clarke is chunky but explosive with it and the hosts will not want to make the mistake of giving him space because he is rapid in his own right.
George North 8 v 8 Rieko Ioane
Both converted wings, albeit with different styles.
Ioane has Formula One speed — he’s the fastest All Black in a 100 metre sprint, according to team-mates — but he took time to adapt in midfield, at first looking like a wide-man operating as a centre. But in the latter stages of the Rugby Championship he appeared to be warming to his brief, with his passing noticeably improving along with his support lines.
North can motor as well, and showed impressive stepping power on the wing against the Dragons recently, beating seven defenders and making more than a hundred metres with ball in hand. Wayne Pivac is trying to use him more in games — hence his selection as a centre — and the big man is a threat with his power. If Wales can send a supply of quick ball his way the 105-cap player will keep New Zealand’s defence honest.
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Nick Tompkins 7 v 7 Jordie Barrett
The Swiss army knife versus a utility player who has played for New Zealand in three different positions.
Both are important to their teams.
Tompkins makes punchy carries, doesn’t miss many tackles and pops up in unexpected positions on the field — even at the odd maul. He is also a defensive leader for Saracens and is developing into a favourite with the Wales selectors, starting nine out of the past 11 Tests.
Is Barrett a full-back or centre? He has even played at fly-half.
He is still learning the ropes in a Test midfield and that might give Tompkins a slight edge, but Barrett performed outstandingly with a 12 on his back against Australia in September.
Rio Dyer 6 v 8 Sevu Reece
Dyer is new to the Test arena and fresh faces at international level can take time to adapt. He will find everything speeded up but he has developed considerably as an all-round player over the past couple of years and he has looked exceptionally sharp for the Dragons. It’s up to Wales to work out ways to utilise his speed.
What they don’t want to do is leave him out on his wing waiting for a pass, as happened to Luke Morgan on debut in international rugby in 2018.
Reece is quick in his own right and has been around for a while. He scored against Wales last year and makes a habit of popping up in unexpected positions. If Wales doze in defence he will punish them.
Gareth Anscombe 7 v 8 Richie Mo’unga
Mo’unga has been a top-class performer at Super Rugby but maybe at Test level he’s yet to establish himself as a true great. Whether the competition between him and Beauden Barrett has played a part in that, with each player continually looking over his shoulder when at 10, is something only they will know.
But, still, he’s starting at fly-half instead of Barrett which says a lot.
His attacking gifts are not in doubt but Wales will want to test his appetite for defence.
Pivac will hope Anscombe’s injury-induced break over the past five weeks won’t affect his sharpness. The Osprey is a quality operator who’s blessed with vision as well as nice passing skills. Importantly, he also has a winning mentality.
Tomos Williams 7 v 8 Aaron Smith
It’s a good test for Williams, against a player who’s long been among the top three scrum-halves in the world. The Welshman is inventive and on his day can rip open any defence with rapid speed of thought and clever plays.
But he’s up against a man who has arguably the finest pass in the sport, a solid box-kicking game and vast experience. Someone once said the best thing about Smith is that he hasn’t got a worst thing.
What makes him truly special is that bullet pass. Rarely is he snared around the base of rucks. Never does he take so long to send out the ball that spectators can nip outside for a hot dog and find their way back into the stadium before his No. 10 takes possession. With Smith it’s gone — whoosh — allowing the All Blacks to play at tempo. Other nines should watch and learn.
Gareth Thomas 7 v 7 Tyrel Lomax
At 6ft 4in and a small kebab light of 20st, Lomax packs a major presence and pushes his weight at scrum-time, albeit he has experienced the odd set-piece glitch in the past. But he caught the eye in the second Test against South Africa in the summer.
Thomas’ primary job will be to test Lomax in the pushing and shoving game.
The Osprey is also known for his chop tackling and Wales will look to him to back up frontline defenders such as Justin Tipuric, Tommy Reffell and Taulupe Faletau.
A concern is that Thomas has played just 52 minutes of rugby this term because of injuries, but national-squad training has been intense and the selectors have deemed him ready for Test rugby.
Ken Owens 7 v 7 Codie Taylor
Two streetwise campaigners who are unlikely to be surprised by anything that happens on the pitch in Cardiff on Saturday.
Where Owens scores particularly highly is with his influence on other players. Team-mates seem to play better when he’s on the field.
He is reliable at lineouts and will lead the charge into the opposition defence with ball in hand. Indeed, one writer once compared him to the Masters of the Universe character Ram Man, whose USP involved bashing into immovable objects — head down, Ram Man knew only one way. So does Owens, and it doesn’t involve going backwards.
Taylor suffered a dip in form earlier in the season but has battled his way back after a reset. He is strong, does the basics well and scores tries. Wales will need to watch him, especially at driving mauls.
Tomas Francis 7 v 7 Ethan de Groot
For a big man — and at 6ft 3in and just over 21st, he’s a very big man — loosehead De Groot will carry and tackle but his bread and butter is the scrum and it takes a lot to better him. Gave as good as he got against the Springboks in the Rugby Championship, so a big tick there.
Francis is underrated by many.
He may not be seen too often with ball in hand but he hits many rucks and he doesn’t often come off second best in the scrums.
Wales need him to ensure set-piece stability this weekend.
Will Rowlands 8 v 8 Sam Whitelock
Rowlands’ ability to pinch opposition lineout ball has helped shift momentum in games for the Dragons this season, while he has also been a force around the field, winning turnovers, carrying and tackling. How was he overlooked for international rugby until the age of 28? He was Welsh rugby’s player of the year last term and he has taken that form into this campaign. The All Blacks will need to be wary of him because he is a player who can impact hugely on a game.
Much the same can be said for the veteran and warrior that is Whitelock.
Where he leads, others follow.
Adam Beard 7 v 7 Scott Barrett
Wales have opted for two twin-peaks locks in Beard and Rowlands, the pair they used with success against the Springboks in the summer. Beard acknowledged earlier this term he had areas where he could improve, but the same applies to every player. He’ll be aiming to disrupt the All Blacks maul, contribute strongly in defence and offer himself as a safe option on Welsh lineout ball. If he can make more of a mark as a carrier, that would add to his value.
There is a touch of old school about Barrett and he plays with an edge. He has figured for New Zealand at blindside and enjoys close-quarter exchanges. Was sent off playing for the Crusaders earlier on in the year for a dangerous tackle.
Justin Tipuric 8 v 7 Shannon Frizell
New Zealand’s back row is so competitive it’s been a bit stop-start at Test level for Frizell. He’ll want to make a mark against a country he was qualified for by virtue of his dad being born in Swansea. The 6ft 5in, 17st forward is physical and likes to carry and offload. He is also a useful lineout option.
It’s advantage Wales here, though, with Tipuric a master craftsman whose rugby intelligence helps him to stay one step ahead of the opposition. He doesn’t waste time on lost causes and he picks and chooses which breakdowns to attack. If his role will change here as a No. 6, he has the class to adapt.
Tommy Reffell 7 v 7 Dalton Papali’i
“The main goal for me is to be the best seven in the world.” So said Dalton Papali’i earlier this year. No one can accuse him of not aiming high.
He has been spoken about as a player who’s going to win a lot of caps, but he’s been restricted to just one All Blacks start this term with skipper Sam Cane taking the jersey.
Papali’i is a quality option, though, a tough player who doesn’t give in easily. In 2021 he was a Super Rugby player of the year nominee.
Reffell is cut from similar material, with the hard-case flanker from Pencoed proving in the summer he could compete against the very best. He shocked South Africa with his work at the breakdown and showed no fear throughout the series. He’ll be determined to go well on his first Test appearance in Cardiff.
Taulupe Faletau 9 v 9 Ardie Savea
Two of the best No. 8s in the world, with Savea a player who doesn’t make a habit of coughing up possession. His exceptional leg strength allows him to drive through contact — sometimes it can take two or three players to bring him down — and he doesn’t do quiet periods during games. Earlier this season, a website asked: “Does he ever play poorly for his country?” It’s a good question.
In Faletau he’ll be coming up against a world-class player in his own right.
A concern is that he has been injured.
But, on his game, there isn’t much the Cardiff player can’t do on a rugby field. His decision-making is rarely less than spot-on and he is capable of dominating games. Often, he can prove the difference.
Replacements: Wales 7 v 7 New Zealand
Wales have an edge on experience here in the shape of Alun Wyn Jones, Rhys Priestland, Nicky Smith, Ryan Elias and Dillon Lewis, while they’ll look to Christ Tshiunza for youthful impact.
Anton Lienert-Brown and David Havili are quality options behind the scrum for the All Blacks, with Ofa Tu'ungafasi a prop capable of making a mark. During lockdown he became an internet hit as he used his car as scrum machine in his backyard. Tupou Vaa’i and Akira Ioane are both physical specimens.
TOTALS
Wales 117
New Zealand 120
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