There might a yellow thunderstorm warning for the whole of Wales in place for some of the weekend, but at the same time temperatures are set to rise. Parts of Wales could see highs of 29°C over the weekend, making it warmer than Barcelona, Corfu and Istanbul.
A plume of warm air is set to raise temperatures but increase the risk of thundery showers at the same time.
The high pressure area which has been responsible for the settled weather for much of the UK will drift away towards Scandinavia, allowing a plume of warm air from the south to influence the weekend weather for much of the UK. Welsh weather forecaster Derek Brockway says it hasn't rained in parts of Wales since May 8.
He said: "It's been dry now for three or four weeks. In Swansea the last rain was on May 8th! Unusual to be dry for so long in Wales.
"Next few days warmer and humid. Showers and scattered thunderstorms over the weekend. Amounts of rain will vary from place to place. Warmer than average next week."
He added that the highest temperature in Wales so far this year was 25.1°C in Porthmadog, Gwynedd on May 29, and there was a good chance temperatures will be 26°C in Tremadog, Talsarnau and Portmeirion. On Saturday. he said it was possible for 29C in Hawarden, Flintshire!
The transition in the weather began late on Thursday for those in the southwest, with warm air from the south allowing for higher temperatures on Friday as well as a chance of the odd showery outbreak in the far southwest. This warmer air pushes further north and east through the weekend, with the possibility of more widespread showers bringing the chance of hail and gusty winds for a few places.
The yellow weather warning has been issued, covering Wales and a large area of southern and central England from 2pm to 9pm on Saturday. The warning highlights potential disruption to travel, the chance of power cuts and the possibility of very localised flooding from the heaviest showers. More details here.
Met Office deputy chief meteorologist Dan Harris says: “Although a plume of warm air will bring temperatures up to around 30°C in some parts of England, it brings with it the risk of some impactful thunderstorms. The general focus area for Saturday has become better defined over the past 24 hours, which has resulted in sufficient confidence to issue a “Very Low Likelihood” yellow thunderstorm warning.
“While not everyone in the warning area will see the heaviest showers, or even showers at all, some are likely to be torrential and thundery, with 30-40mm falling in an hour. Some spots affected by multiple showers could see in excess of 60mm within the warning period. It’s worth noting that this far from the event the main focus area could change as latest forecast information becomes available, so it’s important to stay up to date with the latest forecast.
“It’s also important to note that this warmer air will also see relatively high night-time temperatures, often staying in the mid-teens Celsius for some.”
Storm Oscar, which has been named by the Spanish Meteorological Service (AEMET), will not be impacting the UK, though will help to drive the warm plume of air into southern areas.
The Met Office says that signals for next week indicate the risk of thundery downpours will continue at first for some with temperatures likely to remain above average. Eastern coastal areas could be slightly cooler again, with a resumption of an easterly breeze.
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