“Sometimes I lie awake at night, and I ask: ‘Where have I gone wrong?’ Then a voice says to me: ‘This is going to take more than one night.’”
It’s a line from Charlie Brown in the old comic strip Peanuts.
But it’s not hard to imagine Wayne Pivac saying it to himself while looking at the ceiling in the wee small hours after Wales’ defeat by Georgia in Cardiff, assuming he’s self-aware.
Wales could have no complaints about what unfolded on Saturday. They won only 46 percent of the possession against a team who lost at home to Samoa the previous weekend; they managed only two linebreaks, created next to nothing in attack and saw their scrum reduced to rubble.
It was a grotesque performance, with matters deteriorating as Wales unloaded their bench, which proved to be an exercise in anti-impact, Taulupe Faletau aside.
Where did it all go wrong for Welsh rugby? Is the situation salvageable 10 months out from a World Cup?
Is head coach Pivac the man to take Wales into that tournament? What happens next? Why are the regions performing so poorly?
What role does the Welsh Premiership have in producing players good enough for Wales.
So many questions. We assess the crisis facing our game at the moment.
Why was Pivac's selection an accident waiting to happen?
There is a golden rule in team selection. If a coach is going to experiment with his starting XV, then he needs to load his bench with experience and impact — with tried and tested players who can be relied on to quickly douse any fires and turn situations around.
Pivac didn’t do that for Saturday with the exception of Faletau and maybe Leigh Halfpenny at the back, where he could do only so much with time running out.
Tellingly, their reserve front row was raw in Test terms. They had a tighthead in Sam Wainwright who hasn’t been starting for Saracens in the Premiership Cup this season, let alone in the Gallagher Premiership. There’s time for him to develop into a fine player, but the evidence of the Georgia game suggests such a process may be a long-term project.
Put bluntly, he doesn’t look ready for the important role of tighthead in Test rugby just yet. Wales should have picked that up in training.
And if Tomas Francis, Wales’ top scrummaging No. 3, is fit, why wasn’t he at least among the replacements? Instead, he could be seen helping out on the flank in scrummaging practice before the game started, with Rhodri Jones, Bradley Roberts and Wainwright making up the reserve front row.
That said, it was about more than one position. “You look at the front five who were in that last couple of scrums — Jones, Wainwright, Roberts — hugely inexperienced,” said Jamie Roberts afterwards.
“I would put fault in the system that Wayne potentially over the past few years hasn’t exposed those players enough to deal with those situations on the pitch, when it comes to crunch points in Test matches. He talks about responsibility. I think the responsibility lies with him as a head coach."
In a perfect world, the highly promising Dafydd Jenkins would have had experience all around him in the front five for his Test debut. But Wales were sending out distress signals in that area in the final quarter. Likewise Sam Costelow. Ideally, he’d been coming onto the pitch with front-foot ball to try to make the most of. Instead, he joined the action as the Georgians were taking control.
Wales missed a beat with their bench selection, in particular. There should have been more Test know-how there.
Maybe a banana skin could have been avoided.
What did Warburton actually mean?
If the performance of Wayne Pivac as national coach isn’t being looked at closely, then his bosses at the Welsh Rugby Union are not doing their jobs.
Wales have had a ghastly 2022, winning just three out of 11 matches. They have lost to Italy at home for the first time in their history and had a maiden defeat at the hands of Tier Two Georgia. Their attacking game seems permanently in hibernation, their pack is unreliable and their defence can be suspect, as New Zealand showed when running in eight tries in Cardiff earlier this month. It is not entirely clear there are ready-made replacements below the top-tier players, either.
It’s not a happy tale more than three years into Pivac’s tenure as coach.
And read the words of Sam Warburton after the game on Saturday. “I wonder, if it’s not being expressed on the pitch, there must be some kind of deeper, underlying issues. The players — why aren’t they motivated? Why aren’t they desperate?"
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We do not know for sure if Warburton is linking that back to something Pivac-related. The New Zealander is an affable sort who doesn’t come across as a coach players might feel the need to rail against. There again, players respond best when their coach is delivering results, when they have complete confidence in his ability to take them across the divide that separates success from failure.
So far, and time is getting on, Pivac has not shown conclusively he fits the bill in that respect.
Wales lack depth in certain areas, but is that linked to a wider problem in Welsh rugby or is it down to the national coach’s failure to develop enough truly Test-class players during his time in charge?
The regions have been performing poorly for years, a problem that some contend has its roots in funding levels relative to other countries. How difficult is it then for a Wales coach to fashion a national team that performs consistently and excellently?
Warren Gatland did while he was in situ, although was that papering over the cracks? Pivac steered the team to a Six Nations title in 2021, but the job of Welsh team boss is one of the toughest in world rugby, with expectations high and perhaps not enough set in place below the national team to bring about success.
Sacking Pivac right now could be justified if the Welsh Rugby Union can see no progress under the Kiwi and mistakes being repeated. But should there be a post-autumn review before any decisions are taken? History suggests supposed fixes don’t always do what they say on the tin?
Wales changed coaches before the 1991 and 1995 World Cups and success still proved elusive. Indeed, in 1995, they had a supposed dream ticket of Alec Evans, Mike Ruddock and Dennis John in charge, all of them highly respected team bosses. But such was the depth of the problems that beset the national team and Welsh rugby at the time, not even their knowledge and experience could turn around a hugely challenging situation: Wales bombed out of the tournament at the pool stage.
A new coach can provide the rugby equivalent of a sugar rush to a team, but it doesn’t always happen. And Pivac will know that a win over Australia this coming weekend would change the mood for some — Welsh rugby being fickle.
But how he needs such a result. Desperately, otherwise the pressure will become even greater.
Where’s the attack?
How good was Dinat Niniashvili at times on Saturday? The free-spirited Georgian full-back served notice of the threat he posed early on by collecting a kick not far from his own line and, instead of lumping the ball into touch 15 metres upfield and conceding possession to Wales, he sniffed the wind, stepped past an onrushing Welsh defender and motored towards the halfway line.
Wales have a wonderful runner themselves in Louis Rees-Zammit but he found doors slamming in his face all afternoon in Cardiff. He’ll enjoy better days, for sure.
But the Welsh attack has been woeful as a whole: predictable, punchless and lacking invention. Speedy ball players creating opportunities were not to be found. George North did dent the Georgia defence a few times and every side needs a power runner in their set-up, but they should also have a craftsman or two to complement him.
Wales were inaccurate. They won too few collisions. They saw their scrum demolished. Certain players will now be sweating over their World Cup spots.
Is it their fault or is it the fault of the coaching or both? It’s a question for the WRU to consider in their review of the series.
Why did clubs turn down reform?
“An utter shambles. A disgrace. It’s hard to think of words that describe it.”
So commented a Welsh rugby figure this writer talked to after the vote at the recent WRU annual general meeting that saw clubs stop the governing body from passing a motion that would have allowed them to appoint an independent chair to run a business with a £100 million turnover.
Maybe the proposal could have been explained better to those who were wavering. Whatever, the end-result was damaging in the extreme.
Sam Waburton stated after Saturday’s fiasco “The problems are way deeper" than what we saw out on the pitch and that "Good organisations start at the top."
Improving the way the union is managed at the top would benefit all. The governing body seem to have recognised as much.
Perhaps the clubs need to as well, and quickly.
Why are the regions not firing?
"Some of the results and performances this season do not reflect the quality of the teams that are being put out."
So said an individual close to Welsh Rugby Union earlier this season who didn't want to be named. He was talking about Cardiff, Ospreys, Scarlets and Dragons.
The point was fair to the extent that even some players have been bitterly disappointed with the way certain matches have panned out. Teams haven't always added up to the sum of their parts and coaches and players will know as much. It's been the case for a number of years.
That said, all concerned are operating against a difficult backdrop. They often play against rival teams who are better funded and it's a fact that money counts hugely in sport. In a perfect world, for instance, the Ospreys would be playing in South Africa in the coming weeks with three or four top-class experienced overseas players for the youngsters to rally around. Sadly for them, such riches are not there right now. Instead, they will be facing the Bulls and the Sharks with a disproportionate number of players who are still learning their trade.
It is but one example. The regions still don't know their budgets for next season. There has also been a freeze on recruitment and some players are wondering whether they'll have contracts in the new season. Some matches are played on Saturday nights, a graveyard slot, and in a league that isn't big on travelling support, meaning certain games can lack atmosphere.
We are only scratching the surface. Many argue a fresh appreciation of professional rugby is needed and a more harmonious relationship between the Welsh Rugby Union and the professional sides. It goes without saying the tail shouldn't wag the dog on major issues. The community game is important but their influence should go only so far, surely?.
Such a bleak environment doesn't help the regions succeed, even if, as afore-mentioned individual pointed out, some results should be better anyway.
What about the role of the Welsh Premiership?
Next term, the Welsh Premiership will expand from 12 to 14 clubs. It isn't what the Welsh Rugby Union wanted.
Former Wales wing turned WRU bigwig Nigel Walker had argued that the Premiership needed to be reduced in number so that it would be of high enough quality to serve as a stepping stone into regional rugby. The money currently allocated by the WRU to the 12 clubs would have been redistributed among 10, meaning more for each of those remaining on board.
But the idea was put on hold by the Community Game Board.
"My own view is we should go down to fewer clubs as long as the selection of those clubs is fair and not based on an old pals' act," said one Welsh Premiership figure earlier this season. "I quite like the Super Six in Scotland, albeit we wouldn't have to have the same number in Wales. But I can see that condensing the league could lead to an increase in quality."
It's important because the Premiership surely needs to be an important pathway to the professional game.
Right now, too few see it in those terms.
Where are the young guns to take over?
The scene is a hotel lobby in Brisbane and the year is 2003, with England players just returning from training. The immediate impression was of bristling maturity. A squad with the right age profile. Major players with major goals that they felt could be realised. Confidence, too. Not too old but battle-hardened and streetwise.
Then we must cut to a press conference in Cardiff fronted by Ron Waldron in 1990, with the then Wales coach explaining to the assembled media that a major problem at the time was that while there were some very promising players emerging, it might take time for them to fully develop.
Age matters.
Wales are carrying a number of 30-somethings in their set-up under Pivac. Some of them will make it through to the World Cup in less than a year's time without too many problems. Dan Biggar has been missed this autumn with his drive and insatiable will to win, Taulupe Faletau and Justin Tipuric have performed well, Ken Owens, too.
We haven’t seen Alun Wyn Jones since a tweet from Tendai ‘The Beast’ Mtawarira suggested it was time to retire. Warren Gatland would have doubtless started with Jones in the next game, possibly made him captain, and told him to stuff those words down the former Springbok’s throat.
But there’s been no sign of the ex-Wales skipper in recent weeks.
Leigh Halfpenny is set to have a chance to make a statement this weekend against Australia..
Josh Navidi may return to prominence later in the season.
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But there are concerns about the balance of the Wales set-up. “We talk about the experienced players in Wales’ squad. A lot of them are in their mid-30s. Yes, they are experienced. Are they going to win you a Rugby World Cup in 10 months’ time when they’re also a year older?” asked Jamie Roberts on Amazon Prime Video.
There are some excellent young players emerging, among them Jenkins, Christ Tshiunza, Jac Morgan, Tommy Reffell, Dewi Lake and Louis Rees-Zammit.
But more are needed. Why is the production line not delivering in that respect?
It’s a question those being touted for the Wales job after 2023 will probably think long and hard about before throwing their hats into the ring.
Will Wales beat Australia and what happens with Pivac?
Australia are battered themselves as they move towards the end of a tough tour that has seen them lose three out of four matches. But they could have beaten Ireland over the weekend and lost by just a point to Six Nations Grand Slam champions France earlier this month.
So Wales will need to front up. Properly front up.
Pivac’s team will be minus their England-based players and have a number of injuries. But the coach simply has to coax a response from his side.
A heavy defeat would be the very opposite of what he needs right now. Indeed, any kind of loss would leave his position in real jeopardy.
As mentioned, history suggests a coaching change in the run-up to a World Cup has perils all of its own.
But Pivac shouldn’t take anything for granted. It’s a big game for him and his team this weekend.
It's an even bigger game for Welsh rugby.
What do you think should happen with Welsh rugby? Have your say in our comments section below
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