Are you a Wales fan reading this on the train to London? If so, let’s huddle in tight and try to stay positive. In round one of the Six Nations everyone starts equal. There is rain around and England have a couple of significant injuries. Steve Tandy is a capable guy and there are some talented individuals at his disposal. In this grand old championship miracles have been known to happen.
C’mon boys, believe. That red jersey still represents something special. All that history, all that fabled lineage. Gareth, Gerald, Jiffy, Alun Wyn … they’re all right with you. It’s only 80 minutes and opportunity knocks. Under the radar is a useful place to be. And, look, it’s not even called Twickenham these days. Allianz Stadium could be anywhere.
How long can we keep this going? As long as you like. Because no one on either side of the Severn Bridge fancies the grisly alternative. The day a Welsh team turns up in south-west London without any passion, pride or attacking intent is the day the Six Nations loses a slice of its soul. Which is why even those supporters opposite wearing white shirts and drinking Guinness at 9am are also secretly hoping Saturday’s contest is competitive for at least an hour.
Of course it won’t be easy. The off-field politics in Welsh rugby have become so toxic you could not blame any player for being slightly distracted. And with tens of thousands of tickets still available for Wales’s home championship games even the leek-carrying diehards are starting to vote with their feet. It will be interesting to see how many make the pilgrimage up to London.
But where were we? Ah yes. In the tunnel, shoulder to shoulder with Steve Borthwick’s lilywhites. In certain cases they are familiar faces. England’s tighthead prop Joe Heyes, for example, is about to pack down against Nicky Smith, his colleague from Leicester, and respects him immensely.
“I’m excited for that challenge because he’s a world-class scrummager,” stresses Heyes. “I’m good friends with him and Olly Cracknell so that’ll also be interesting. Sometimes you’d rather not know the people you’re playing against. But the game’s so fast you don’t even know who you’re hitting.”
Tomos Williams is also a Prem regular at Gloucester and everyone rates him. Ditto Louis Rees-Zammit at Bristol Bears. The experienced Tomas Francis, once of Exeter but now playing in Provence, is back on the bench. None of these are second-rate players who will be daunted by the occasion. If you squint hard enough into the drizzle it is just about possible to imagine a slippery ball, a couple of early English errors and Wales applying a little pressure of their own.
This may also be the moment to observe that Wales’s last four visits to England, including a World Cup warm-up game in 2023, have been decided by fewer than three points apiece on average. Two years ago it ended 16-14 and in 2022 it was 23-19. Statistically England’s 68-14 victory in Cardiff a year ago was an exception rather than the rule.
Eventually, though, some less cosy realities have to be addressed. England have won their past 11 Tests and have not felt this good about themselves in ages. Over-confidence has occasionally intruded in the past but there is a different feel this time. They know they have serious ability behind the scrum and, at long last, are not afraid to use it.
Their fitness is another developing strength and there is clear danger lurking on England’s bench regardless of how fast Wales can start. Borthwick has already recognised the value in a raft of simultaneous subs a la South Africa’s “Bomb Squad” and there is every chance of Maro Itoje, Luke Cowan-Dickie, Tom Curry and Henry Pollock rumbling on together. That’s twice as many benched British & Irish Lions as there were Welshmen in the entire original squad.
The suggestion that Wales will simply look to hoof the ball high and often and seek to create a degree of havoc off the back of it could also work both ways. As France showed against a flat-footed Ireland in Paris, a varied aerial game is vital but what matters even more is having the pace, vision and reflexes to sweep up the “crumbs” that materialise from it.
In that respect England may miss Immanuel Feyi-Waboso who, had he been fit, would definitely have kept Wales guessing. Rees-Zammit, in particular, had been looking forward to renewing acquaintance with a player who was briefly a squad colleague. “He came into Wales camp for a week when he was maybe 18 but then he obviously went to the dark side and chose England,” laughed the Bristol full-back. “We could have done with him a little bit.”
Tom Roebuck, Feyi-Waboso’s fit-again replacement, was not originally supposed to be ready for the opening weekend, which might be another little titbit for Tandy to feed to his kick chasers. If the visitors start slowly, though, it really could be a tough day. In the Six Nations era Wales have beaten England away in the championship on only two occasions, in 2012 and 2008.
And while everyone remembers Gareth Davies sprinting away to help eliminate the hosts from the pool stages of their own World Cup in 2015, that was 11 years ago. Times are changing and a 25-point defeat, while painful, would not be the absolute end of the world. Even more important is ensuring this famous fixture still resonates on both sides of the bridge decades from now.
