It’s been a while since Wales’ team selection has been so unpredictable.
There are genuine cases for and against multiple players in almost every position – other than fly-half, where captain Dan Biggar will be. Away from the No.10 shirt, very little is certain. Tomas Francis, who has had back issues recently, will start at tight-head if he is as fit as attack coach Stephen Jones made out earlier this week and Ryan Elias looks set to start at hooker but there are some huge conundrums.
Alun Wyn Jones' form at the end of last season did not command selection ahead of Adam Beard or Will Rowlands, but he is still Alun Wyn Jones and that carries some weight. How much weight, though? That’s a huge call for head coach Wayne Pivac but, in some ways, it shouldn’t be.
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The back row will be telling. South Africa give you opportunities but you have to pick a side that is going to exploit them. Outside centre Lukhanyo Am will defend high and aggressively, meaning Welsh wingers will usually find some space if looping passes can reach them.
The likes of Josh Adams and co. will make yards in wide channels and then quick ball to the forwards in midfield could put Wales on the front foot and open up both sides of the field.
You only get that quick ball if your back row in particular is getting to the breakdown quickly and securing it. So you need mobile loose forwards. Everyone is excited to see Tommy Reffell but he has had very few sessions to get up to speed after arriving in camp late, so you have to feel like the first Test is coming too soon for him.
Josh Navidi and Taulupe Faletau are nailed on. Taine Basham fits the mould of a flanker who will get around the field and make it to breakdowns in open spaces and be a destructive force in the loose but Dan Lydiate is the more physical. The selection of the chop-tackling campaigner would be one to contain the Boks, a call for Basham would be a sign that Wales are looking to move their hosts around.
Scrum-half is a bit of a tombola situation with that jersey still frustratingly up for grabs halfway through Pivac’s third year in charge. Tomos Williams is the one they want but promising runs of form are then undone by either careless errors or injury. Gareth Davies has become more of a pragmatist who provides fleeting moments of electricity, while Kieran Hardy sits somewhere in between his two peers.
George North only has a few URC games under his belt since returning from injury but if he is fit enough for a game of this intensity at altitude, then he starts at 13. Wales have missed him dearly.
Inside centre is an interesting one. Wales are likely to do a lot of defending on Saturday and, for that, Owen Watkin is your man but his influence with ball in hand is limited.
Johnny Williams will certainly be useful in the physical confrontations and the battle for the gainline but is there enough subtlety to his game? Wales’ chances of simply barging through the Springboks are slim.
So Nick Tompkins emerges as the likely candidate, having enjoyed a fine season with Saracens. He defended astutely against Andre Esterhuizen in the Premiership semi-final, which bodes well, though he’ll be faced with Damian de Allende on Saturday if he gets the nod. The 27-year-old is probably the most rounded option.
Josh Adams and Liam Williams are assured of their place in the back three but the final wing slot is interesting. Louis Rees-Zammit, whose raw pace is an incredible asset, has been in ridiculous try-scoring form for Gloucester but was dropped by Wales in the last Six Nations.
He is capable of moments of brilliance that others simply cannot produce but the Wales management felt that he has not been getting himself involved in Test matches as regularly as they would like.
This is where Alex Cuthbert, who is the more physical of the two, scores well. Despite playing fewer minutes in the Six Nations, he got significantly more touches than Adams and Rees-Zammit and Pivac rates him for that sort of return.
So there are so many decisions for Pivac and his management group to make and the outcomes will be very telling in terms of how Wales are going to approach Saturday’s opener at Loftus Versfeld.
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