Candidates in some of the tightest congressional races are staking territory outside political norms as they clash over energy and environmental policy.
Vulnerable Democrats are hedging their support of President Joe Biden’s clean energy policies, while some Republicans in at-risk districts are praising the economic benefits of renewable energy projects.
There’s brewing Republican support, for example, for tax credits in the 2022 climate, tax and health care reconciliation law, considered one of Biden’s biggest legislative achievements. On the campaign trail, Vice President Kamala Harris has repeatedly touted that she cast the deciding vote.
It passed with no Republican votes, but this summer 18 Republican members wrote to House leadership urging them to protect some credits, which they said “have spurred innovation, incentivized investment, and created good jobs in many parts of the country.”
Many of these signatories are in close races and in districts that have significant investments from the clean energy industry. In Virginia, Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans is facing Democratic challenger Missy Cotter Smasal in a race that Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales ranks Tilt Republican.
Kiggans’ district is the landing site for Dominion Energy’s Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project, which, when fully constructed, is estimated to deliver 9.5 million megawatt-hours per year of renewable energy, or enough to power 660,000 homes. In an Oct. 11 debate, Kiggans pointed to her support for offshore wind “because of the economic development opportunities it brought to this region.”
This comes as some in her party, including former President Donald Trump, remain highly critical of offshore wind. Trump has threatened to bring the projects to a halt “on day one” through an executive order.
In Iowa, Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is in a race rated as Toss-up against Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan. Miller-Meeks, who chairs the Conservative Climate Caucus, is one of many Republicans who have expressed support for an “all of the above” energy approach, pointing to her support for wind, hydropower and ethanol, all of which receive some support from the 2022 climate law.
The nonpartisan business group E2 found that over the first two years of the law more than half of all projects were in Republican districts and that 19 of the top 20 congressional districts receiving investments are held by Republicans.
These positions counter to party leadership may track with the public’s attitude toward climate issues.
Jon A. Krosnick, a social psychologist at Stanford University and a fellow with D.C.-based independent research organization Resources for the Future, has surveyed attitudes on climate change for more than 25 years. His latest survey, released Oct. 22 by the organization and Stanford, shows that a majority of Republicans (57 percent), independents (77 percent) and Democrats (95 percent) generally endorse U.S. government action to deal with climate change.
The findings, he says, show voters are knowledgeable and care about these issues to a degree above the standard messages found in either Democratic or Republican campaigns.
“If the candidates want to win over the independents, they should be talking about climate and they should be taking a green position,” Krosnick said.
EV transition
The 2022 climate law also included significant support for electric vehicles. Biden administration policies urging a faster transition toward EVs and away from internal combustion engines have become a flash point in the automotive industry-heavy Midwest.
Republicans have argued that Democratic policies would ship auto jobs overseas because China is the leading producer of critical minerals necessary to make EV batteries. Democrats argue that without domestic investments, Chinese EVs will infiltrate the U.S. market and the United States will lose its opportunity to keep EV manufacturing jobs at home.
In Michigan, a hub for the U.S. auto industry, those issues are coming to a head over Democratic candidates’ support for $175 million in state subsidies for a controversial battery manufacturing plant pursued by China-linked Gotion Inc.
In the fight for Michigan’s 8th District, Republican candidate Paul Junge has criticized Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet for supporting Gotion and accused her of backing an “EV mandate” through Biden administration regulations that set strict tailpipe emissions standards.
“I don’t think it’s playing politics at all, that saying sending $150 million or $175 million in Michigan taxpayer money to a Chinese company is a bad idea,” Junge said at a forum last week.
Support for the Gotion battery plant has also haunted the Democratic contender for Michigan’s 7th District, Curtis Hertel Jr., who’s in a tight race against Republican Tom Barrett.
In Michigan’s Senate race between former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers and Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, Rogers ran TV ads earlier this year alleging Slotkin’s involvement in a “secret deal that helped a Chinese company,” referring to Gotion.
Slotkin and McDonald Rivet have pushed back on the claim that the EPA tailpipe emissions rules amount to an “EV mandate,” instead arguing that a transition is inevitable so the U.S. should work to keep those auto jobs.
“If the fundamental question is who do we want to make that next generation of vehicles, you better believe I want that to be Michigan, not China,” Slotkin said at a debate earlier this month. “Everyone knows China is eating our lunch on these kind of vehicles.”
Michigan’s 7th and 8th districts are both rated as Toss-up. In the Senate race, an average of polls by Real Clear Polling had Slotkin up by 3 points as of Monday.
In Ohio’s tight Senate race, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has distanced himself from the Biden administration’s EV transition agenda. Over the summer, Brown joined Sen. Joe Manchin III, I-W.Va., in introducing legislation to overturn a Biden administration rule implementing the EV tax credit and has also voted to reverse the administration’s tailpipe emissions rules.
Brown is facing Republican Bernie Moreno and, as of Monday, was up by only 1 percentage point, according to Real Clear Polling. Meanwhile, Brown has been leaning into support from United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain, who portrayed Brown in an op-ed in September as a union champion during last year’s strikes against the “Big Three” automakers: GM, Stellantis and Ford.
Fossil fuels
But even as the United States moves alongside the world toward renewables, Democrats in tough races are hedging their support for a green energy transition.
That starts at the top of the ticket, as Harris has defended her change in position from 2019 remarks when she called for a ban on hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, on public lands.
“What I have seen is that we can grow and we can increase a thriving clean energy economy without banning fracking,” Harris told CNN in August when questioned about the change.
In Pennsylvania, Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick has repeatedly accused Democratic Sen. Bob Casey of supporting policies counter to the state’s fracking industry, which has supported jobs and communities affected by the decline of coal.
During an Oct. 3 debate, Casey accused his opponent of lying, pointing to two votes Casey cast in 2021 for amendments that would prohibit the White House and EPA from banning the practice. Casey has further questioned some of the administration’s actions, such as placing a pause on some permits for new liquefied natural gas exports, even as McCormick criticizes Casey’s general support of the administration.
Oil and natural gas production have risen under Biden, but many Republican candidates have continued to argue that Democrats aren’t sufficiently supportive of the fossil fuel industry.
In New Mexico, Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez is defending his seat against Republican Yvette Herrell, whom he defeated in 2022, in a race rated Tilt Democratic. On the campaign trail, Herrell has accused Vasquez of insufficiently backing the industry, which supports jobs in the Permian Basin, a region rich in oil and natural gas.
Vasquez, too, has bucked his party as one of 15 Democrats to vote in favor of a Republican bill that would prohibit the president from declaring a moratorium on fracking unless authorized by Congress. Vasquez has tied the oil and gas industry to another major issue in the border district, immigration, by arguing that Trump’s policies would harm an industry with many undocumented workers.
Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, who’s running to maintain her seat representing Alaska’s at-large congressional district, also walks the tightrope on clean energy to appeal to her electorate, which has long benefited from the oil and gas industry in the state. Her race against Republican candidate Nick Begich is rated a Toss-up.
Peltola has taken credit for the administration’s approval of the Willow Project, a ConocoPhillips oil and gas development in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, and has slammed the Biden administration for canceling leases in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
She said in a debate that she supports development of a trans-Alaska natural gas pipeline as well as an expansion of oil drilling in Alaska.
“I will continue to advocate . . . for Alaska’s ability to explore and develop our natural resources, from the critical minerals we need for our clean energy transition to the domestic oil and gas we need to get us there,” she said in a statement in response to the ANWR lease cancellations. “We can only get to that transition by listening to the people on the ground.”
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