Seven days ago the Vuelta a España was shocked by the excellence of Ben O’Connor and the error of judgement of every other GC contender and their respective teams that allowed the Australian to take an almost four minute lead into the first rest day.
Yet with so many summit finishes remaining, the indications were that O’Connor would gracefully slip down the standings and by the second rest day a more normal hierarchy would be re-established.
Everyone expected Primož Roglič would crack the Decathlon-AG2R leader and that the podium contenders such as Enric Mas and Mikel Landa would make sure he never came back to worry them.
How wrong we were and it has been great it’s been to see why.
Stage eleven ought to have been a safe day for O’Connor but when Roglič attacked on what was a relatively innocuous 3rd cat climb and O’Connor couldn’t follow, the 30-second time loss suggested that he was doomed to defeat.
O’Connor continued to lose time during the second week but didn't panic and didn’t crack. Even so, every pundit, expert and armchair spectator, me included, thought O’Connor would be back wearing his normal team kit on the second rest day.
Oh how wrong we all were and the humble pie now being served still has some topping.
It’s not just us armchair spectators who underestimated how hard it is going to be to take back each second from the red jersey. Roglič is now at a minute and still the overall favourite but for Mas, Carapaz and Landa the task of making the podium looks far harder.
O’Connor time in the red jersey has changed his outlook on life and the race. Gone is the slightly embarrassed demeanour that he showed on the first few visits to the stage finish podium and the protocols that ensue. Having the red jersey has renewed his confidence, he’s relaxed and enjoying his success.
Obviously he is under pressure but it hasn’t buried him in the way it has done several times since he finished fourth at the 2021 Tour de France. There is more acceptance and understanding of his own ability and I think he realises that as long as he stays within his own limits then a place in the top three is possible.
O’Connor has the red jersey and so it is up to his rivals to decide how and when is best to try to distance him.
Roglič and Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe could potentially wait until the final Madrid time trial. Mas and Landa are going to have to try something before then, especially if they hope to hurt Roglič too.
EF Education-EasyPost and Richard Carapaz don’t have the same resources as Movistar and Soudal-QuickStep and so will have to be even more creative and even more aggressive.
With his previous Lagos de Covadonga knowledge. Roglič should take back more time on Tuesday and perhaps finally the race lead. That would be his ideal scenario. He could then settle into a more defensive race with two mountain top finishes remaining.
That’s the expected script, but let's see how O’Connor sees his leading role on the big stage.
Proven predictions and third week respect
The second week has also resulted in confirming two other things, one which was easy to predict and the other not.
Wout Van Aert taking a third stage win as the strongest from the breakaway on stage 11 was massively expected. A fourth win was snatched away by his sprint rival Kaden Groves but Van Aert has the firmest of firm grips on the green points jersey.
Now it’ll be interesting to see if he tries to win the climbers prize too. Jay Vine and the ever active Marc Soler might have some thoughts on that subject. Given how the latest UAE Team Emirates tactics are the least predictable of the big teams, they could easily do something silly. There does not seem to be any coherence in their tactics.
The push they did for Pavel Sivakov on Sunday was strange to say the least. He was never going to out climb Mas and anyone else above him on GC and they didn’t win the stage. UAE Team Emirates have to decide their main objective. Is it the team classification, Vine in the blue polka dots or are they chasing stage wins?
If Vine wants to target the mountains jersey, then Kern Pharma’s Pablo Castrillo could be a major rival. Winning one stage might have been a surprise but getting to the top of Cuitu Negru first was remarkable for two reasons.
It was a GC day, so it was hard in the break and hard back in the peloton. Secondly he was with Sivakov and Alexandr Vlasov, both who have considerably more pedigree and race experience.
Yet the young Spaniard beat both of them on a climb which was brutal and not that suited to what appeared to be his abilities. Castrillo does not have the prettiest of racing styles but you can’t doubt his pain threshold and potential for further development.
In true Vuelta style, the audacious breakaways have been successful five days out of six during week two.
Some of the names involved were to be expected. Michael Woods at Ancares did what he had to do to save Israel-PremierTech’s race. Likewise for Eddie Dunbar two days earlier, though the Irishman needed that win more individually than to spare Jayco-AlUla’s blushes.
With Ben O’Connor signed up for next year the Australian team have to show they are worthy. Consistently putting a guy in the break and coming up short would have been frustrating but eventually it paid off. Not something you can say for Marc Soler or Max Poole, who were always in the moves and outwitted or ridden at the finish.
It’s been quite an interesting week of racing because as predicted the pressure applied to O’Connor has been consistent and a threat but only Roglič has really profited. Everyone else in the top ten has had a good day and then not been able to produce a similar performance to back it up.
There’ll be a lot of introspection during Monday’s rest day and numerous plans laid out for the final week. Hopefully this time they’ll be more respectful towards O’Connor and fully understand the task they face and how difficult it is going to be.
Get unlimited access to all of our coverage of the 2024 Vuelta a España - including breaking news and analysis reported by our journalists on the ground from every stage as it happens and more. Find out more.
