The referendum on the Indigenous Voice to parliament will be held on October 14. A national Essential poll, conducted September 27 to October 1 from a sample of 1,125, gave “no” to the Voice a 49–43 lead, a narrowing from a 51–41 “no” lead a fortnight ago.
This is the first time since June that “yes” has gained ground between two separate polls by the same pollster. On voter strength, 42% were hard “no” (steady), 30% hard “yes” (up two), 13% soft “yes” (up one) and 7% soft “no” (down one).
The graph below has been updated with additional results from Freshwater and Morgan (see below) as well as Essential. The Essential and Morgan polls are the best pollsters for “yes”, but it is still behind with these polls. “Yes” is much further behind with other polls, including a 20-point deficit in last week’s Newspoll.
