A “massive strategic blunder” made by Vladimir Putin could see Finland and Sweden join NATO as early as the summer, US officials say.
Washington is reportedly banking on the growth of the western alliance from 30 to 32 members, as a direct consequence of President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
US officials said both Nordic countries attended talks between NATO’s foreign ministers last week, during which membership was a “topic of conversation and multiple sessions”, The Times reported.
“How can this be anything but a massive strategic blunder for Putin?” one senior American official asked.
Washington is expecting Finland’s application in June, while Sweden is expected to follow suit soon after. Both are neighbouring countries to Russia, which sits just across the Baltic Sea. Finland also shares an 830-mile land border with Russia.
Finland’s prime minister Sanna Marin has said it was time for her country to seriously reconsider its stance on joining the alliance.
Speaking on the weekend, she said Russia was not the neighbour she once thought it was.
“I think we will have very careful discussions, but we are also not taking any more time than we have to in this process, because the situation is, of course, very severe,” she said.
Similarly to Finland, Sweden is carrying out a security policy review expected to be completed by the end of the month.
Magdalena Andersson, the Swedish prime minister, said a fortnight ago that she did “not exclude Nato membership in any way”.
While the two countries were working together to build domestic consensus, the final decisions would be taken independently.
The countries are working together to build domestic consensus but, officials emphasise, the final decisions will be taken independently.
Late in February, just days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin threatened Sweden and Finland with ' military and political consequences' if they joined NATO.
Maria Zakharova, Russia's foreign ministry spokeswoman, said there would be serious repercussions for their close Arctic neighbours.
Zakharova said during a news briefing: "Finland and Sweden should not base their security on damaging the security of other countries and their accession to NATO can have detrimental consequences and face some military and political consequences."
Speaking to Sky News on Friday, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov doubled down on this warning.
“Everything is about mutual deterring and should one side — and we consider Nato to be one side — be more powerful than the other, especially in terms of nuclear arms, then it will be considered a threat for the whole architecture of security and it will take us to take additional measures,” he said.
NATO now has 40,000 troops under its direct command in eastern Europe, from the Balstic to the Black Sea. Its force has increased nearly tenfold since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24.
The alliance is making plans to deploy a permanent full-scale military force on members’ borders to prevent a further Russian invasion as it adapts to a “new reality.
NATO’s general secretary, Jens Stoltenberg, said Putin’s actions had provoked a “fundamental transformation” of the military coalition, which would reflect the long-term consequences of the war in Ukraine.
The bolstering of NATO’s military power would be carried out with the aim of enabling countries that share borders with Russia and Belarus to repel an attempted invasion.
If Finland and Sweden join NATO, Putin would be expected to redeploy troops to his northwestern flank, putting further pressure on his stretched military.
European diplomats have said the addition of both countries to NATO would significantly bolster the group’s capabilities, particularly in terms of intelligence-gathering and air force powers.
Nato membership for Finland and Sweden would prompt redeployment on Putin’s northwestern flank, further stretching his military, which has been badly affected by Ukraine’s resistance and the prolonged conflict.
