The Atlantic Ocean’s main current system is significantly more likely to collapse than previously thought, according to new research, with potentially catastrophic consequences.
Experts said that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) could pass the shutdown tipping point within the next couple of decades, making a collapse inevitable.
According to new research published in the journal Science Advances, the current circulation is estimated to slow down at a rate of between 42 and 58 per cent by 2100, a level that is considered almost certain to end in collapse.
The consequences are expected to be catastrophic for Europe, Africa and the Americas, with extreme cold winters and summer droughts for European countries and an entire shift for the tropical rainfall belt, affecting farming and agriculture for millions across the world.
Analysing the Amoc is an incredibly complex process for climate scientists with widely varying results, varying from predictions of no drop in the current’s circulation to huge figures of around 65 per cent.
Using a mixture of real-world ocean observations and computer models to determine the reliability of all the different projections, the research led by Dr Valentin Portman Inria, of the Centre de Recherche Bordeaux Sud-Ouest in France, found that a catastrophic slowdown is the most realistic outcome.
The massive system of ocean currents helps regulate global weather patterns by transporting warm water north and cold water south.
Concerns about its stability have accelerated in recent years, with various studies warning that it could approach a tipping point and prompt catastrophic climate shifts, adding around 50 to 100cm to rapidly rising sea levels.
Last year, a study published in Nature suggested that while the Amoc is still under threat, a wind-driven upwelling in the Southern Ocean can prevent its total collapse this century.
Led by researchers from the UK’s Met Office and the University of Exeter, the study analysed 34 climate models under two extreme scenarios: a quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide and a major freshwater influx into the North Atlantic.
It found that although models showed a weakening of the current by 20-81 per cent over 90 years, none predicted a complete collapse.
Several studies in recent years have found that Amoc is likely to shut down completely and far earlier than we previously expected.
Dr Joel Hirschi, associate head of marine systems modelling at the UK’s National Oceanography Centre, said at the time that the study provides “counterbalance” to the debate.
But experts have warned that a weaker Amoc would have serious economic and environmental consequences even without a complete collapse.
“While they find no evidence for a switch-off or collapse of the Amoc, they do find a weakening in all cases, and this alone should be cause for concern,” Dr Jonathan Bamber, director of the Bristol Glaciology Centre, University of Bristol, said of the 2025 study.
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