Virginia Democrats held onto their narrow majorities in the commonwealth’s legislature Tuesday, but experts cautioned against reading too much into the results of the first special elections since Donald Trump won a second term last fall.
The special elections for three legislative seats, which took place a day after the Northern Virginia region was hit with a snowstorm that likely affected Election Day turnout, suggest that voters haven’t experienced any major political shifts since November.
Democrats held on to a pair of deep-blue Loudoun County seats (one in the state Senate, the other in the state House of Delegates), while Republicans retained a safely red state Senate seat in central Virginia. The legislative contests were triggered by the election to Congress of two former state senators – Democrat Suhas Subramanyam and Republican John McGuire.
Virginia is one of two states holding gubernatorial races in November and control of the state House of Delegates will also be on the line, likely offering a better pulse check on how voters are feeling about the incoming Trump administration and the Republican-controlled Congress.
“You’re not looking at races that one would describe as swing districts or representative of larger trends in the commonwealth, much less nationally,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science and international affairs professor at the University of Mary Washington. “At most, you could say that the partisan divisions of November continue to exist in January.”
Government control of Virginia is split with Republican Glenn Youngkin holding the governorship and Democrats maintaining a 21-19 majority in the state Senate and a 51-49 edge in the state House.
In Loudoun County, Democratic state Del. Kannan Srinivasan, who won a firehouse primary in November, will succeed Subramanyan in the commonwealth’s 32nd Senate District after defeating Republican Tumay Harding 61 percent to 39 percent. Democrat JJ Singh, a former congressional aide, won Srinivasan’s state House seat Tuesday, prevailing over Republican Ram Venkatachalam 62 percent to 38 percent.
And in Virginia’s 10th Senate District, located west of Richmond, Republican Luther Cifers defeated Democrat Jack Trammell 59 percent to 41 percent to succeed McGuire. According to calculations by the left-leaning Downballot, formerly Daily Kos Elections, Srinivasan’s and Singh’s winning margins were almost identical to Democrat Kamala Harris’ performance in the districts last fall. But the Republican margins in the race to succeed McGuire saw a drop-off from November: Trump carried the seat by 27 points over Harris, while Cifers won the special election by 18 points.
“State legislative Democrats are not wasting a single moment in this new year to get back to work,” Heather Williams, the president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said in a Tuesday night statement. “The decisive victories of Delegate-elect Singh and Senator-elect Srinivasan reinforce our Democratic majorities in Virginia and keep our critical firewall of Democratic state legislatures strong.”
The group, which works to elect Democrats in state legislative races, announced a $100,000 investment for the Virginia caucuses last month ahead of Tuesday’s elections.
“As Republicans take full control in Washington, the DLCC and our allies will continue to take advantage of every opportunity in the states to elect Democrats and build a strong counterweight to the incoming administration,” Williams added.
Democratic former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who is running to succeed the term-limited Youngkin as governor, said Tuesday’s results showed that voters “want sensible leaders who get things done.”
“Kannan Srinivasan and JJ Singh believe in the promise of this country. They believe that our children deserve strong public schools. They believe that the rights of our fellow Virginians should always be protected. And they believe in building a Virginia economy that works for every one of our neighbors. They will deliver real results for Loudoun County in the General Assembly,” she said in a statement.
Spanberger is seen as the favorite for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination this year, though Rep. Robert C. Scott hasn’t ruled out entering the primary. Punchbowl News reported last month that some Virginia Democrats are concerned about Spanberger’s “ability to excite Black voters” when she’s likely to face Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears, the first Black woman elected statewide. Former GOP Rep. Denver Riggleman recently told The Washington Post that he was considering a bid for either governor or lieutenant governor this year.
McGuire and Subramanyam were sworn in to their congressional seats last week.
McGuire won a competitive primary last year, narrowly defeating Republican incumbent Bob Good, who at the time led the hard-line conservative House Freedom Caucus and had earned the wrath of both Trump and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. McGuire launched his campaign for the House in 2023 after Good joined seven other Republicans in voting to oust McCarthy as speaker. Good had also endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign, which naturally angered Trump, who went on to endorse McGuire and campaign for him.
Subramanyan, the first Indian American elected to Congress from Virginia, succeeded fellow Democrat Jennifer Wexton after winning a closer-than-expected race in November.
Wexton had opted against seeking a fourth term after she was diagnosed with a severe neurological disorder called progressive supranuclear palsy, a disease she referred to as “kind of ‘Parkinson’s on steroids.’”
Wexton used an artificial intelligence voice model to assist in delivering her farewell address on the House floor in which she expressed hope for a “cure for PSP and other atypical Parkinsonisms.” She first unveiled the AI voice model in July, when she became the first member of Congress to use the technology to help give a floor speech.
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