The first divisional game for the Minnesota Vikings comes at one of the more pivotal moments for the future of their season. The Vikings go to Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears at 12 PM CST.
Justin Fields has been playing at a level that Bears fans are not accustomed to seeing from their quarterback in the past two games. Fields is the first quarterback since Mitchell Trubisky in 2018 to have four touchdowns and a passer rating of at least 125 in a span of two games.
Kirk Cousins and company are coming in amidst all of the trade rumors and tanking allegations with the second-best passing offense and top-ten offense in terms of yards. With both defenses being inconsistent throughout the season, there is no telling what kind of game fans will be in for on Sunday.
What is known is that in every divisional game, any advantage that a team can muster is amplified because of the familiarity. In this exercise, we will discuss who has the edge at each position and where the advantages lie for both teams.
Quarterback
Advantage: Minnesota
It is true that Justin Fields has been playing like the Bears faithful have been waiting for him to play. Yes, it is true that Fields has a running ability that Kirk Cousins does not have. It’s true that Fields is playing at a level that can elevate this Bears offense.
But it’s not enough to gain an advantage over Cousins. There’s a reason why this passing offense has been able to carry a rushing offense with zero touchdowns to close to top-ten production. Admittedly, some of that is Justin Jefferson, but a lot of it is Cousins and his ability keep this offense moving down the field. Last week against the Chiefs, Cousins showed some pocket navigation that was impressive and will be an asset now that Jefferson is on injured reserve.
Running Back
Advantage: Draw
For Chicago, the running back position has been decimated by injury. Khalil Herbert is out for Sunday after a high-ankle sprain, as is Roschon Johnson who sits in concussion protocol. Even Travis Homer is questionable with a hamstring injury that kept him out of practice on Wednesday. Now, the success of the run game lies in the hands of Fields and journeyman D’Onta Foreman.
Even with all of their qualms at the position, the edge still can’t go to Minnesota. Not yet anyway. Minnesota has to prove that they can utilize their run game, and so far they have not. The last time a team has not had a rushing touchdown in the first five games, ironically, was Minnesota back in 2018. That season, they had the league’s worse rushing EPA by a large margin. The margin between them and the next-worse team (Houston) was more than the margin between 31st and 25th.
Needless to say, no edge is being given until they can prove this run game is a viable part of this offense.
Wide receiver
Advantage: Chicago
D.J. Moore has played out of his mind the past two weeks. There are only 9 instances of a player gaining 360+ yards and four touchdowns in the span of two games. The last one? Tyreek Hill during his 2020 season with the Kansas City Chiefs. Before that, the time machine has to go all the way back to 2009 with Miles Austin during his Dallas tenure. The rest of the room consists of Darnell Mooney and, with the loss of Claypool, the next contributing receiver is Tyler Scott, who has had five targets this season and is mostly used in the kick return game.
In Minnesota, they are getting their first taste of what this offense will look like without Justin Jefferson. Everyone has to move up the pecking order with the reigning Offensive Player of the year out on Sunday and the next four weeks.
However, the trio of Jordan Addison, K.J. Osborn and Brandon Powell give me more comfort than D.J. Moore, Darnell Mooney and either Tyler Scott or Velus Jones jr. The uncertainty with the last spot for Chicago gives the slightest of edges to Minnesota.
Tight end
Advantage: Draw
Both Chicago and Minnesota have their aces in the hole at the tight end position with Cole Kmet and T.J. Hockenson, respectively.
Both teams have solid auxillary pass-catchers and blockers in Marcedes Lewis and Robert Tonyan for Chicago, and Josh Oliver and Johnny Mundt for Minnesota.
This one goes straight down the middle.
Offensive line
Advantage: Minnesota
Minnesota has had one of the better lines in the NFL, according to composite grades from PFF, ESPN and SIS. Despite the 1-4 start, this offensive line is ranked 4th in pass protection and 3rd in run blocking.
Composite of run block ratings. The Eagles being No. 1 in both pass protection and run blocking says a lot about them pic.twitter.com/ruxgYWFma6
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 11, 2023
According to the numbers, this is a top-five line in all of the NFL. We have to respect that. Edge goes to Minnesota.
Defensive line
Advantage: Minnesota
The Bears’ defensive line is not what it used to be. They are relying on a lot of young talent that have ultimately done a good job. Overall, the Bears are ranked 14th in ESPN’s run-stop win rate metric, and Justin Jones in third in that category with a 46% win rate. So, it’s not like they are bad in any respect.
The Minnesota defensive line is just really good. Both Harrison Phillips and Jonathan Bullard rank in the top ten in win rate and the Vikings rank 5th in the league in the run stop win rate metric. They showed out against the Chiefs, stopping their red-hot run game for a measly 67 yards on 21 carries and a touchdown.
Linebackers/Pass rush
Advantage: Minnesota
The linebackers for Chicago are impressive. Jack Sanborn, T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds are dependable in the middle of the field, both in coverage and coming downhill. Especially Sanborn, who is the heartbeat of that unit. The pass rush from Yannick Ngakuoe and DeMarcus Walker has amounted to three sacks and nine hits on the quarterback.
The emergence of Marcus Davenport on the other side of Danielle Hunter has vitalized this Minnesota pass rush. The interior linebackers for the Vikings, Jordan Hicks and Ivan Pace, have been solid coming downhill and helping the run.
The consistency of Minnesota’s bunch gives them the edge.
Secondary
Advantage: Minnesota
This isn’t giving credit to Minnesota’s secondary, by the way. They have not looked very good as a unit this season. The aggressive nature of Flores’ defense puts a bit more pressure on the back end of the defense, but the execution can be better by everyone from Byron Murphy to rookie Mekhi Blackmon. The safeties have been good for the Vikings, especially in run support. Camryn Bynum has a quick trigger downfield and Harrison Smith
Chicago’s secondary has not been able to stop anyone this season. No matter the metric, passing yards allowed, passing touchdowns allowed, passing DVOA or EPA per dropback, Chicago is either last or second-to-last. Jaylon Johnson has had a pretty good season, but rookie Tyrique Stevenson has been taking his lumps as the Bears wait for Kyler Gordon to return from injury.
The slight edge goes to Minnesota.
Specialists
Advantage: Minnesota
The two kickers here, Greg Joseph and Cairo Santos, have been 100% on all their kicks and extra points, while having similar numbers on kickoffs.
That means the advantage comes from the punters, and Minnesota’s Ryan Wright gets the nod.
Wright’s 51.8 yards per punt and 43.9 net yards give the Vikings a slight edge over Trenton Gill’s 47.1 yards per punt and 38.7 net yards.
