How possible is it that the Minnesota Vikings can pull off the upset against the San Francisco 49ers tonight at 7:15 p.m. CST?
The 49ers finally showed a few cracks in their foundation last Sunday against the Cleveland Browns that led to their first loss this season.
Can Minnesota capitalize on San Francisco reeling from this first loss or will they become the next victim?
There are a lot of rumblings about Minnesota tearing it down to the studs and starting anew by being major sellers at the trade deadline.
The only way to avoid that is to compete against the odds on Super Bowl favorites.
To do that, they need every advantage they can muster, so let’s look position-by-position to see where they can find their edge.
Quarterback
Advantage: Minnesota
I can hear the San Francisco faithful looking at this as a slight as Brock Purdy has looked stellar, for the most part, in his first 11 starts.
It’s just difficult to look at that last start against Cleveland and say with assurance that that was only an aberration. Now, he can come out here and fire on all cylinders against Minnesota and make me look foolish, and I’ll be okay with that.
But Minnesota knows what they have in Kirk Cousins and that’s above average to good quarterback play week-to-week. We’ll see how Purdy responds to this sort of adversity, but right now, my edge goes to the more consistent and well-known commodity in Cousins.
Running back
Advantage: San Francisco
Hurt or not, the edge will continue to go to San Francisco as long as Christian McCaffery is on the roster.
The swiss-army knife that is McCaffery headlines a rushing attack that is third in the league in rushing yards and second in rushing touchdowns. While McCaffery, Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell are the actual running backs, expect names like Ray-Ray McCloud to get carries as well
On the other side of the coin, Minnesota has had an up-and-down relationship with their running game thus far. There are times where it looks like the running game is more than effective enough to be a complement to the passing game. Then, there are other times where they can’t get the run game going at all and have to rely almost solely on the passing game. The latter cannot happen tonight.
As far as the edge goes, the easy advantage is San Francisco’s. I can’t see Minnesota taking an edge at this spot until a running back finds the end zone this season. They are the only team in the NFL without a rushing touchdown.
Wide receiver
Advantage: San Francisco
The beauty of the San Francisco offense is how anybody can be a threat at any time regardless of position. However, in the passing game there is still a clear top dog in San Francisco and his name is Brandon Aiyuk.
With Deebo Samuel out, the onus will be on Aiyuk and McCloud to pick up in the passing game. But with the litany of weapons that surround the wide receiver position, that shouldn’t be a problem.
For Minnesota, the loss of Justin Jefferson proved to be as costly as expected against Chicago. Hopefully, after a week of practice, they are more prepared for someone, either Jordan Addison or K.J. Osborn, to step up in his absence.
But without JJ, the edge goes over to San Francisco, again, pretty easily.
Tight end
Advantage: Draw
This is a tough one.
For San Francisco, there’s Mr. Tight End University himself in George Kittle, but he hasn’t had as impactful a start as the 49ers fanbase would have hoped. He’s currently on pace for around 612 yards, his lowest number since his rookie season in 2017. That could be a product of more weapons around him but the production isn’t there for a target that was easily one of Purdy’s favorites at the end of last season.
For Minnesota, T.J. Hockenson was quite disappointing in the absence of Jefferson last week. As the highest-paid tight end in the league, the expectation was for him to execute and be the go-to guy until Jefferson returns. While he led the team in yards and receptions, it never felt like the connection between he and Cousins looked good. That has to be mitigated as he faces a much more imposing defense tonight.
There is no edge here as both of these top-tier talents have relatively struggled.
Offensive line
Advantage: Minnesota
Don’t get mad at me. The numbers speak for themselves.
Pass protection composite measure from three sources pic.twitter.com/5a2a3EEdbq
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 18, 2023
According to the composite numbers, this is the seventh-best offensive line in the league. Kirk has had better success staying upright in the pocket and the running game has had its moments, so there’s some validity to it.
For San Francisco, the line usually doesn’t have to be stellar because the ball is out so fast. Purdy’s 2.6 seconds is sixth in the NFL, according to Next Gen stats. Which has helped San Francisco to be 13th in the NFL in pass pressure percentage.
However, the metrics favor Minnesota, so the slight edge goes to them. Plus, Trent Williams is doubtful for Monday’s game.
Defensive line
Advantage: San Francisco
Listen, Minnesota’s defensive line has done a solid job this season in controlling the run and keeping offenses married to the passing game. The Vikings have seen the fourth-least amount of run attempts on them this season. That is due to them having a pretty good defensive interior.
But, they are not San Francisco. This line gets pressure on the quarterback consistently while also stopping the run. They are second in the NFL against the run and it has looked as such. Their 33% run-stop win rate is good for ninth in the NFL.
Edge goes to San Francisco.
Linebackers/pass rush
Advantage: San Francisco
This one will be quick.
San Francisco’s pass rush, led by reigning defensive player of the year Nick Bosa, has been stellar. They rank ninth in pass-rush win rate, according to ESPN and they have another defensive player of the year candidate in inside linebacker Fred Warner. Dre Greenlaw is still a question mark but even so, Dee Winters is a solid replacement.
Minnesota’s pass-rush is good, but outside of Danielle Hunter, it’s been hit-or-miss. Without Marcus Davenport, expect more of the same inconsistency with getting home. D.J. Wonnum has stepped up a bit in Davenport’s absence but not enough to give a whole lot of optimism.
San Francisco easily takes the edge here.
Secondary
Advantage: San Francisco
There is a reason the 49ers are top-ten in passing yards allowed and number-one in interceptions and that’s this secondary. Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir both have passer ratings of sub-70 when targeted and have not let up a touchdown this season. Talanoa Hufanga and Tashaun Gipson have been stellar at the safety positions. It is tough to throw against this disciplined defense.
Minnesota’s secondary has been a bit hit-or-miss as well, but that’s mostly due to scheme. The Vikings blitz a ton, which puts a lot of pressure on the back-end to cover man-to-man. Byron Murphy and Akayleb Evans have done their their best to mitigate big gains, but have let up a lot of yards on a lot of completions, 540 on 58 completions (10.74 yards/completion) between the two of them. The versatility of the safeties has been fun to watch, though. Harrison Smith, Camryn Bynum and Josh Metellus have been used everywhere on the field.
The edge goes to San Francisco.
Specialists
Advantage: Minnesota
Greg Joseph and Ryan Wright have been money when called upon. Joseph has been six-of-seven on the season and has made all but one of his extra points while Wright is eighth in net yards per punt.
Jake Moody had a chance for a signature moment last week but was unable to cash in to send the 49ers to overtime. While their punter Mitch Wishnowsky has been great at pinning teams inside their own 20, third in the league, he only has 47.9 yards per punt, good for 16th in the league.
Edge goes to Minnesota.
