Victorians are being urged to keep enough supplies on hand for 72 hours ahead of a significant storm event, which is expected to cause flooding and power outages across the state.
The premier, Daniel Andrews, joined Emergency Management Victoria deputy commissioner, Chris Stephenson, and State Emergency Service chief operations officer, Tim Wiebusch, at the state control centre on Tuesday to warn those living in parts of the state to prepare for up to 100mm of rain in the coming days.
“We know that our catchments are full, we know that we’ve had record rainfall to this point and the ground is absolutely sodden, so even a minor amount of rain would be a risk in terms of flooding,” Andrews said.
“But it’s not a minor rain event that we are forecasting. It will be significant rainfall in certain parts of the state and that will pose a flooding risk to communities in lots of different places.”
Bureau of Meteorology senior meteorologist Kevin Parkin said the rain would begin on Wednesday, with localised bursts of 20-30mm forecast before widespread falls of 20-50mm on Thursday across much of Victoria.
Higher falls of about 60-100mm are expected in the Great Dividing Range and northern catchments on Thursday, where riverine flooding is occurring.
Wind gusts of up to 100km/h are also expected in elevated locations extending from the Grampians through to the Central Highlands.
“So I can’t stress the importance that Thursday is very much a flash-flood heavy rain day – be prepared – and then we’ll be dealing with a riverine flood risk as the next several days unfold,” Parkin said.
Wiebusch said it wouldn’t take much rain to cause damage, given several of the state’s dams were nearing – or have already reached – capacity following storms last week.
“As we’ve seen in recent days, the Dartmouth dam has spilled for the first time in 26 years, Lake Eildon is about to reach a point where it’s spilling for the first time in 28 years, if you come across to the Thomson Dam indications from Melbourne Water is we could see that spill this weekend for the first time in 30 odd years,” he said.
“The biggest risk for Melbourne in the coming days is flash flooding.
“Again we can’t emphasise to people enough to not attempt to drive through flash flood waters. We don’t want to see cars and people on roofs at York Street and Dudley Street and all those other locations that are known hotspots around Melbourne.”
Blue areas on flood watch: heads up that projected rain could put those rivers back in flood. Minor to moderate is likely, risk of major flooding
— Jane Bunn (@JaneBunn) October 11, 2022
Rain begins Wednesday, peaks Thursday, gradually clears Friday. 30-80mm, locally >100mm
I'll keep you updated on @7NewsMelbourne pic.twitter.com/t8oH91ydaK
Andrews said work was well under way to prepare for the storms, with 200 generators on standby for communities if they are to lose power.
“We’re not certain whether there will in fact be tens of thousands of homes affected from a power point of view,” Andrews said.
The state’s fleet of emergency helicopters are also on standby to assist with airlifts of supplies, equipment and emergency personnel as needed, he added.
Stephenson said emergency services were prepared but urged Victorians to “take charge”.
“You need to make sure that you are prepared for up to 72 hours of potential isolation and that includes making sure it’s not just yourself but your neighbours, you’ve got provisions for your pets, you’ve got your medication available,” he said.
Major inundation is occurring along the Murrumbidgee in New South Wales, with the Riverina town of Gundagai on high alert and flooding is also possible downstream at major regional centre Wagga Wagga.
Other areas of concern include Gunnedah and Wee Waa in north-western NSW, Warren, west of Dubbo, and Forbes in the central west.
Evacuation orders are current for parts of Dubbo, Wagga and the Hawkesbury, north of Sydney.
SES volunteers have responded to more than 1,000 calls for help since Friday evening, including 155 in the past 24 hours, and conducted six rescues.
Northern Tasmania is also set to face heavy rain between Wednesday and Friday, with up to 100mm expected in some parts.
The weather bureau expects an increased risk of tropical cyclones and tropical lows and widespread flooding for eastern and northern Australia heading into 2023.
