The political movement founded by the late President Hugo Chávez faces a significant challenge as it approaches the 28 July presidential election in Venezuela. Opinion polls suggest that most voters are seeking change, creating a precarious situation for Nicolás Maduro's government, a new analysis by International Crisis Group argues.
The opposition's unified strategy is contributing to this shift in political dynamics. Unlike previous elections where they denounced fraud and boycotted the polls, they have committed to participating in this election and rallied behind a single candidate, Edmundo González. He is representing the Democratic Unitary Platform after the primary winner, Maria Corina Machado, was barred from running.
Chavismo's response to this challenge reflects its internal complexities, the analysis claims. Discussions with Crisis Group reveal a movement committed to retaining power, even at the cost of increased authoritarian measures. Pragmatic and material concerns are significant, as leaving power could bring substantial personal costs to those within the regime. However, the movement is not monolithic; it consists of various factions with differing views on democracy and governance. These internal divisions influence their perspectives on the election and potential responses to a defeat.
Chavismo has historically united diverse groups, from union workers to military members and businesspeople. Initially, it gained widespread support from rural and poor urban voters, buoyed by high oil prices and substantial social spending. However, the economic collapse of the past decade has eroded this support, leaving the movement with a shrinking base across all social classes. This declining support and internal diversity are central to the tensions within the movement.
Despite claiming a commitment to democratic principles, chavismo's leaders emphasize the necessity of staying in power to achieve their goals. The movement also faces criticism for straying from its socialist roots, with leaders accumulating wealth while the vast majority of Venezuelans struggle with poverty.
The fear of losing power and facing potential persecution drives chavismo's cohesion. Many within the movement believe that an opposition victory could lead to retaliation against them. This fear is compounded by the prominence of hardline opposition figures like Maria Corina Machado, known for her uncompromising stance against chavismo.
Mid- and higher-ranking officials within the government exhibit varying levels of optimism about their electoral prospects. While grassroots activists express pessimism due to widespread disillusionment among their base, higher-ranking officials, often isolated from these realities, remain more hopeful, believing in the government's propaganda and blaming external factors like U.S. sanctions for the country's problems.
Top chavista leaders acknowledge their declining support but believe they can win if abstention remains high and the opposition vote is divided. Their strategy includes appealing to a broader audience, downplaying traditional chavista rhetoric, and negotiating for fairer electoral conditions.
Facing potential defeat, the government has reverted to confrontational tactics, invoking Chávez's legacy and framing the election as a struggle against U.S. imperialism. The administration accuses González of being complicit in the sanctions and portrays the opposition as traitors.
As the election approaches, the Maduro government's willingness to accept an opposition victory remains uncertain. The government's ideal scenario involves winning a competitive election to gain legitimacy and potentially lift sanctions. However, given the current political climate, the likelihood of allowing a genuinely competitive election appears slim. The government may resort to tactics that ensure abstention remains high and could disqualify threatening candidates to secure a victory.
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