There were 94.2 million head of cattle and calves on U.S. farms as of July 1, according to last Friday afternoon’s USDA cattle inventory report. Of the 94.2 million head inventory, all cows and heifers that have calved totaled 38.1 million. There were 28.5 million beef cows in the United States as of July 1, down 1% from last year. The number of milk cows in the United States increased to 9.65 million. The U.S. calf crop was estimated at 32.5 million head, down 2% from 2025. All cattle on feed were at 13.2 million head, up 2% from 2025. The USDA surveyed over 17,400 operators across the nation during the first half of July.
“USDA’s July 1 count edges higher for the first time since 2018 and beef replacement heifers climb 3%, but a still-shrinking cow herd, the smallest calf crop since 1941 and feedlots running ahead of their supply line point to tighter beef supplies — and a later, slower rebuild — through 2028. Trade resumes Monday with feeder cattle and deferred live contracts best positioned to firm,” said a report from Jim Wiesemeyer of Ag Bull Media. “The tension in Friday’s data is the cattle cycle’s oldest paradox: the same heifer retention that marks a bottom takes cattle away from feedlots and packers first and adds beef last. If ranchers are indeed beginning to hold heifers, feeder cattle supplies — already down 1% outside feedlots — get tighter before a single additional calf reaches a packing plant,” said the report.
