The first 18 months of President Donald Trump's second term in the White House have seen a series of policy-driven economic shocks, highlighted by the immigration crackdown and higher tariffs that he promised during his 2024 campaign, and an unanticipated war with Iran that has boosted the price of oil and threatened global supply chains. While the U.S. economy overall has withstood the policy changes and Middle East war better than many economists expected, Trump's vow to lower prices, boost factory jobs, and improve life for the middle class has yet to materialize, with the midterm elections a little more than three months away. Resilient, yes, but the economy has also stalled in many of the areas where Trump said that mass deportations of undocumented people and higher import taxes would trigger a boom, with the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran intensifying some key risks.
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