When you imagine the contours of a so-called second Cold War between the United States and China, you might think of hypersonic glide vehicles, billion-dollar stealth fighters and, of course, the Taiwan Strait. But today, it’s all about a balloon.
US officials have spent the last few days tracking a high-altitude Chinese balloon floating above Montana. Though, as reported in the Wall Street Journal, the balloon was “first spotted on Wednesday by civilians in a commercial airliner,” which makes me feel less comfortable than had it been identified by North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD). I suppose it is at least a coup for the much-maligned ‘See it. Say it. Sorted’ campaign.
After being briefed on its existence, President Joe Biden ordered the balloon be shot down. This was however opposed by the Pentagon, which feared civilian casualties on the ground.
In a statement this afternoon, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said the balloon was a civilian airship used for meteorological research that had been blown off course by the weather. “The Chinese side regrets the unintended entry of the airship into U.S. airspace due to force majeure,” it stated. As Mark Urban, BBC Newsnight’s Diplomatic Editor pointed out on Twitter, this type of explanation “is a well worn one with Russia and some western powers.”
Indeed, with the universe simulation we inhabit having given up on new storylines, you may recall the US initially claimed that the U-2 spy plane shot down over the Soviet Union in 1960 was a civilian weather research aircraft, a line that held until Nikita Khrushchev said: “We have parts of the plane...we also have the pilot.”
Why was a weather balloon soaring high above Montana, population a little less than Staffordshire? Perhaps it was for the majestic beauty of Glacier National Park. Or because the state is home to Malmstrom Air Force Base, which operates, maintains and secures Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles.
The Americans are not buying it. A US Department of Defence (DoD) official said, bluntly: “[C]learly the intent of this balloon is for surveillance. And so the current flight path does carry it over a number of sensitive sites.”
Of course, everyone spies on everyone else, a sort of espionage version of the children’s book, Everybody Poops. But this incident threatened to overshadow a long-awaited visit by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, due to arrive in China on Sunday. That is, until it was postponed by the Americans about an hour ago. Coincidentally, the U-2 incident occurred shortly before the scheduled 1960 Paris Summit, which did not go down terribly well.
To be clear, the DoD does not give the impression of being alarmed. Indeed, it says that the balloon “does not create significant value added over and above what the PRC is likely able to collect through things like satellites in Low Earth Orbit.”
This incident comes amid years of rising tensions between Washington and Beijing, and follows quickly on the back of an announcement that the US will expand its military presence around the South China Sea, after the Philippines gave them access to a further four of the country’s military bases as part of a joint effort to rebuff Chinese aggression.
But it also comes after some recent and gentle attempts at a charm offensive by the Chinese Communist Party, as part of an apparent diplomatic retreat from ‘wolf warrior’ rhetoric. The US-Soviet détente lasted from roughly 1967 to 1979. With another row and a cancelled visit, this one did not last quite as long.
In the comment pages, Emily Sheffield suggests there are reasons to be cheerful and believe that better days lie ahead. While Paul Flynn says LGBT+ History Month is a chance to feel that little bit closer to ‘as good as you’.
And finally, “it is a truth self-evident amongst those who know”, declares Clare Finney, “that the best nights out are the impromptu ones, the ones that start about halfway through dinner.” To that end, here are a few places to get started.
Have a lovely weekend.
