European leaders went to bed on the eve of the US midterms worried. Anyone talking to their ambassadors or to Washington Democrats themselves found themselves picking up real unease, even notes of fear — that the results might mark a sharp turn back towards Donald Trump. Instead they woke up relieved. Not only was there no “red wave” but the wins and losses themselves were a personal defeat for him.
Campaigning across the country, Trump spent millions and endorsed more than 300 candidates only to see some of his most high-profile bets for the Senate flop. In Pennsylvania, the Democrats beat Dr Mehmet Oz — a fellow quixotic former TV star — in a state that was the Republicans’ to lose. In Arizona, the far-Right’s Blake Masters — who once said he opposed American involvement in World War Two — was slammed. Meanwhile, the Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has emerged as Trump’s clear rival for the nomination, stormed to victory.
The great populist suddenly no longer seems inevitable on the Right.
The results still coming in map neatly onto the three guiding thoughts that Chris Christie, the former Governor of New Jersey, once a Trump confidante turned Trump critic, laid out to anyone in Washington who would listen before the elections. First, generic Republican beat generic Democrat. Second, Biden still beats Trump. Third, generic Republicans are having trouble getting on the ballot — beaten to their slots by Trump candidates such as Bo Hines in the House in North Carolina or Doug Mastriano for governor in Pennsylvania. Christie predicted the Republicans would underperform where both the economy and the typical swings against the incumbent party should have them winning — because the former President’s men and women were just too much for the suburbs.
American democracy has come out looking tougher than expected. Democrats have managed to get there not only by playing off these contradictions. They have also played a double game: with the President warning himself on the one hand it was in danger, while boosting Trumpist candidates by attacking their more moderate opponents to ensure unelectables were on the ballot — a strategy that paid off brilliantly, from New Hampshire to Michigan and Pennsylvania. Washington strategists are now already suggesting that the best way for Biden to underscore the resilience of American democracy is to turn up the volume on fears of its demise — which brought out the blue vote — while hoping a weakened Trump still ends up on the ballot. The hard-Right DeSantis — with no Russia baggage or history of attempted coup d’etats — would on current trends look very hard for them to beat.
The fear among the Republican leadership is that their primary voters are still more in love with an electoral liability. That same resilience can also be said about American world power. The intense noise of America’s culture wars can sometimes obscure some startling facts. In 2022, with a fraction of its defence budget, the United States has routed — some might say almost destroyed — the Russian army via its support for Ukraine.
The Kremlin’s humiliating choice to withdraw from Kherson after the votes were counted reflected something deeper. The world is not moving towards multipolarity. In 2022, with mere export controls, the US has brutally harmed China’s chip industry. And in 2022, almost 30 years since the creation of the European Union, the continent feels more dependent than ever on the United States for its security and increasingly also for its energy. The dollar is at record highs.
The midterms matter for the world: a red wave would have put pressure on both Ukraine and the rest of allied Europe — with a new slew of Trumpists in the Senate unwilling to keep funding President Volodymyr Zelensky’s armies at the same level and demanding that Brussels, Paris, Berlin and London, all suffering economically, pay much more. The results point to a Congress that is not dramatically different from the one before: where both Left- and Right-wing critics of support to Ukraine have had to walk back their questioning the policy recently under intense pressure.
Roman metaphors are inevitable when talking about empires. The US doesn’t look like being challenged in a serious way just yet. Rulers of far-flung provinces of the imperium — like Britain — can breathe a sigh of relief.
