Millions of Americans will today cast a vote in the US midterms that will shape the second half of Joe Biden's presidency.
The US economy has been a top issue for voters, inflation is at a 40-year high and cost-of-living pressures could mean a harsh verdict for the US president.
While Biden's name is not on the ballot, midterm defeats can alter US presidencies.
The midterm results will also influence the 2024 presidential campaign, potentially improving the odds for Donald Trump to run again.
Wondering about the US mid-term elections? Here's the basics.
What are the US mid-term elections?
These elections are held every two years and when they fall halfway through the president's four-year term, they are called the midterms.
What's up for grabs?
The big race is for control of the House of Representatives and the US Senate.
More than 1,200 candidates are running for nearly 500 seats in the House and Senate.
- All 435 seats in the house are up for grabs. Winners will serve two-year terms.
- This year, 35 of the 100 seats in the senate are up for grabs. Winners will serve six-year terms.
Democrats currently control both chambers of Congress, along with the presidency.
Losing either the House or the Senate to Republicans would decrease the parties' power in the next two years of President Biden's term.
Why do they matter?
The midterm elections decide who controls Congress.
Whoever takes control of Congress has significant sway over US legislation, and is in charge of creating, debating and passing federal laws.
The elections will also set the outlook for Biden's presidential agenda over the next two years.
Midterm elections are typically considered a referendum on the first two years of a presidential term, and history shows the party in power often takes a beating.
Since 1934, only Franklin D. Roosevelt, Bill Clinton in 1998, and George W. Bush in 2002 saw their parties gain seats in the midterms.
But, it's important to remember here, unlike a presidential campaign, there's no grand single winner.
When will we know who has won the US midterm elections?
It could take days for the final results to be clear in closely contested elections, such as the Pennsylvania and Georgia Senate races, election officials warn.
The exact timing of the results depends on the state; each has different rules for when and how votes are counted, explain FiveThirtyEight, a US politics website that focuses on opinion poll analysis.
Some 38.8 million Americans have already cast early ballots, either in person or by mail, according to the US Elections Project.
What happens if Republicans win the House?
Republicans have a strong chance of taking back the House.
If they do, the GOP caucus will elect a new speaker and take power on January 3, 2023. They will run every committee and decide what bills come to the House floor.
Democrats, led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have held the majority since 2018.
What about the Senate?
The Senate could tilt either way, but the majority party is still likely to have the narrowest of margins.
This means Biden could find a bit more common ground there, no matter who is in charge.
When Republicans and Democrats hold 50 seats each, control of the Senate is determined by the party that holds the vice presidency.
If each party holds 50 seats after the 2022 election, Democrats will control the Senate.
Are there any important races or states to watch?
It's worth keeping an eye on the handful of states Biden managed to turn in his favour during the 2020 election.
Those states are:
- Arizona
- Georgia
- Michigan
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
- Nevada
In the 2020 presidential election, Pennsylvania, the one-time Republican stronghold was decisive in Biden's victory.
Both parties have lavished attention on Pennsylvania both because of the strategic importance of the race and because of its voters' history of swinging from one party to the other in the past four presidential elections.
Who will win the US midterm elections?
It's going to be a close election.
President Biden's approval rating is low. Stuck below 50 per cent.
Democrats have been working to hold their ground, campaigning on issues such as access to abortion, addressing climate change and stricter gun control.
History gives Republicans reason for optimism. The party that's held the White House has lost congressional seats in almost every first-term president's midterm election.
The key thing to watch is which party ends up controlling the Senate and the House.
If Democrats were to hold the Senate and Republicans win the House, the two chambers would be unlikely to find much common ground. But Republicans could try to win over Democratic Senate moderates on some legislation.
FiveThirtyEight believe Republicans are "favoured" to win the House, but it's a dead heat for the Senate, with Republicans considered to have a narrow advantage.
Will Trump run for president in 2024?
Donald Trump continued to fuel speculation he'll run for presidency in 2024 at a rally in Pennsylvania just days ahead of Tuesday's US midterm elections.
While he has been talking up a run for president in 2024 since before he left the White House, aides and allies are now eyeing the two-week stretch after this November 8 midterm as a possible window for an announcement, though they caution he hasn't made a decision and that — as always when it comes to Trump — things could change.
A return to Republican power in the House would be a victory for Trump.
Some Republicans who are expected to return to Washington next year, along with many of those hoping to win a first term, are loyal to Trump and have followed his example in their policies and positions.
Many Republicans running for federal or state-wide office believe the presidency was stolen from Donald Trump in 2020.
This is also the first federal elections since the storming of Capital Hill in January 2021, when Trump supporters tried to stop Joe Biden's election victory from being certified.
ABC with AP
