The 2026 midterm elections are 40 days away, and a new poll shows the Democrats in a leading position on the national congressional ballot. In the Emerson College survey, Democrats are shown at 53% and Republicans at 42% among likely voters, which means that Democrats have an 11-point lead, the largest advantage they have had in the poll series, as per a report by Newsweek.
The figure is noticeable since the gap didn't just appear suddenly; in September 2025 Democrats were only ahead by one point, and then their lead increased over the next few months before settling down into a broader range this year.
The most recent poll also explains why the national political situation will be something to watch in the coming weeks since independent voters and Hispanic voters are both favouring the Democrats, the economy staying the issue that matters most to voters.
The latest numbers show a clear shift
Emerson College Polling conducted a survey of 1,000 U.S. voters who were considered likely to vote on September 21 and 22. The poll has a margin of error of three percentage points, plus or minus. The Democrats had 53 per cent, while the Republicans had 42 per cent.
The 11-point Democratic lead was the same one seen in July. Last year the party's lead had been much smaller, it was only one point in September 2025, four points the following month and six points by December. It then reached eight points in January.
In March the lead fell to seven points and from April it remained between nine and eleven points; in August there was a minor change with the Democrats at 51 per cent to the Republicans' 43 per cent; the September figures brought the gap back to eleven points.
The most significant differences are found among independent and Hispanic voters.
60 per cent of independent voters back the Democratic candidate compared to 31 per cent. Hispanic voters give 64 per cent of their support to the Democratic candidate and 31 per cent to the other.
There is also a party difference when it comes to voter excitement. Seventy-eight per cent of Democrats said they were very excited to vote, whereas 70 per cent of independents and 66 per cent of Republicans said the same.
Yet a national congressional ballot is not comparable to the actual House and Senate races. The separate elections will take place in various states and districts.
Trump numbers and the economy add to the picture
The approval rating of President Donald Trump in the survey is 39 per cent, 58 per cent disapproving. Emerson states that this is the highest figure for the proportion disapproving of Trump during his second term in the organisation's polling.
Over half of the voters, specifically 56 per cent, state that Trump's second term has turned out to be worse than they had expected. Twenty-six per cent think it has been better, and 18 per cent believe it has been about as expected.
Another major section of the survey is the economy. 41 per cent of voters consider the economy to be their main concern, while threats to democracy are cited by 17 per cent, immigration by 13 per cent and health care by 12 per cent.
Of the people who prioritised the economy, 55% were Democrats compared to 41%. Also, 60 per cent say that Trump's policies are making the economy worse, and 28 per cent say they are improving it.
"Voters who say the economy is the top issue break for the Democratic candidate, 55 percent to 41 percent, notable considering those who said the economy is their top issue broke consistently for Republicans in 2024," Kimball said.
Spencer Kimball, who is the executive director of the Emerson College Polling, stated that the generic ballot cannot display all the details of the various races, but added that it can still illustrate the magnitude of a possible national shift. "While the generic ballot test doesn’t capture nuances of individual races, it’s an important metric to gauge the magnitude of a potential Democratic wave," he said.
Each of the two parties reacted to the survey in a different manner. The Democratic National Committee referred to the momentum it said was building up for the midterms. The Republican National Committee opposed this, stating that polls are "a snapshot in time, not a crystal ball".
Even with 40 days remaining the situation could alter. At the moment, the Emerson survey indicates that the Democrats have an 11-point national lead, and the state of the economy as well as Trump's approval rating are major considerations in how voters see the political situation.
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